Poll
We're outboarded so I think the hit is unsound. We're in a holding game, so don't volunteer a shot.
13/7 6/3
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/4*
votes: 1
Option 2: 13/7, 6/3
votes: 7
Option 3: 7/1*, 7/4*
votes: 0
Option 4: 13/10, 13/7
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 2 : Herd 6-3
Post by: diane on March 07, 2013, 09:29:00 AM
Post by: diane on March 07, 2013, 09:29:00 AM
How do you want to go, Herd?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on March 07, 2013, 01:32:00 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 07, 2013, 01:32:00 PM
Spoiler
We're outboarded so I think the hit is unsound. We're in a holding game, so don't volunteer a shot.
13/7 6/3
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-3
Post by: dorbel on March 07, 2013, 03:06:37 PM
Post by: dorbel on March 07, 2013, 03:06:37 PM
Spoiler
It's the economy stupid, read pipcount for economy. Hitting loose isn't correct here because Blue leads by 23 pips after the roll. No need to give 18 shots to jeopardise that. Of course Blue will be mildly unhappy if White anchors next, but not as unhappy as he would be if she hits back from the bar! Blue might have hit loose if White had some threats next turn, but she doesn't. 13/7, 6/3 and hope to point on something next turn.
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 2 : Herd 6-3
Post by: ah_clem on March 19, 2013, 07:24:34 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 19, 2013, 07:24:34 PM
XGR++
The safe play is best, for the reasons stated above. Hitting loose is a .08 error. Anything else is Awful!
XGID=-a-Ba-DBB---dC---bBcbb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 63
1. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3 eq:+0.287
Player: 57.88% (G:12.29% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 42.12% (G:8.70% B:0.28%)
2. XG Roller++ 13/4* eq:+0.205 (-0.082)
Player: 54.50% (G:16.11% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 45.50% (G:12.68% B:0.47%)
3. 2-ply 7/1* 7/4* eq:-0.016 (-0.304)
Player: 48.65% (G:17.08% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 51.35% (G:16.60% B:0.72%)
4. 2-ply 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.077 (-0.364)
Player: 48.83% (G:10.65% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 51.17% (G:13.96% B:0.73%)
5. 1-ply 13/7 8/5 eq:-0.117 (-0.404)
Player: 47.62% (G:10.95% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 52.38% (G:14.54% B:0.86%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The safe play is best, for the reasons stated above. Hitting loose is a .08 error. Anything else is Awful!
XGID=-a-Ba-DBB---dC---bBcbb----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O |
| X O X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 63
1. XG Roller++ 13/7 6/3 eq:+0.287
Player: 57.88% (G:12.29% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 42.12% (G:8.70% B:0.28%)
2. XG Roller++ 13/4* eq:+0.205 (-0.082)
Player: 54.50% (G:16.11% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 45.50% (G:12.68% B:0.47%)
3. 2-ply 7/1* 7/4* eq:-0.016 (-0.304)
Player: 48.65% (G:17.08% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 51.35% (G:16.60% B:0.72%)
4. 2-ply 13/10 13/7 eq:-0.077 (-0.364)
Player: 48.83% (G:10.65% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 51.17% (G:13.96% B:0.73%)
5. 1-ply 13/7 8/5 eq:-0.117 (-0.404)
Player: 47.62% (G:10.95% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 52.38% (G:14.54% B:0.86%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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