Game 2, move 4 : Herd 4-4

[diane]

Its one of those...millions of permutations..you see something you like better...make your case...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I tend to get these wrong a lot - often there's a bot move that I overlook, something like  24/16 8/4 6/2 that makes no sense to the human brain but appeals to the bot.

But my pedestrian sensibilities say make the 4 point, and then it's a choice between making the deuce, running with 24/16, or making the 18.

I don't think we want the deuce yet, 24/16 seems to just ask to be hit, and I really don't particularly care to hold the three point, so I'll make the bar.

22/18(2) 8/4(2)

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The main idea here is to abandon the POS 3 point and make the much more desirable bar point anchor.  All the top four plays involve making the bar.  Once the bar is made, making the 4 is the next step, although making the 9 is not at all far behind (ie close enough that I won't trust gnu 0-ply)





    1. Rollout          22/18(2) 8/4(2)              Eq.:  -0.046
       0.483 0.095 0.006 - 0.517 0.122 0.004 CL  -0.059 CF  -0.046
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    2. Rollout          22/18(2) 13/9(2)             Eq.:  -0.054 ( -0.008)
       0.481 0.071 0.003 - 0.519 0.096 0.003 CL  -0.059 CF  -0.054
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    3. Rollout          22/18(2) 6/2(2)              Eq.:  -0.128 ( -0.082)
       0.467 0.086 0.005 - 0.533 0.127 0.004 CL  -0.105 CF  -0.128
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    4. Rollout          22/18(2) 8/4 6/2             Eq.:  -0.129 ( -0.084)
       0.464 0.100 0.006 - 0.536 0.138 0.005 CL  -0.113 CF  -0.129
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
   11. Cubeful 0-ply    22/14(2)                     Eq.:  -0.266 ( -0.220)
       0.442 0.074 0.001 - 0.558 0.170 0.003
        0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[KDP]

maybe you shouldnt post a rollout while you can still vote on the move.  however that is what i would have moved anyway.

[ah_clem]

Agree that I shoudn't post rollouts while the vote is open, but this time the poll had closed and Linus's next decision was posted.  I see that now that this poll is open again - not sure how that happened...