Question:
move
Option 1: 11/8
votes: 0
Option 2: 24/22, 11/10
votes: 5
Option 3: 22/20, 11/10
votes: 0
Option 4: 24/22, 8/7
votes: 0
Option 5: 22/21 6/4
votes: 3
Ok...next post is from back home... B)
Quote from: diane on March 31, 2013, 09:57:06 PM
Ok...next post is from back home... B)
I'm still on the road, but I'll be glad to run an XG analysis on game 1 when I get back next Monday
if you post the .sgf file.Spoiler
The six is crying out to be unstacked, and the best place available for its checkers is the four, so that's how I'll play the 2. Then step up to the 21 with the ace - if we're going to slot an anchor, might as well slot a good one. The 3 point is a POS.
gnubg 2-ply analysis of the match so far (game 1 and the opening rolls of this match. Linus and the Herd can be proud of the level of play.
Spoiler
Linus Herd
Chequer Play Statistics:
Total moves 18 17
Unforced moves 17 16
Unmarked moves 18 17
Moves marked doubtful 0 0
Moves marked bad 0 0
Moves marked very bad 0 0
Error total EMG (MWC) -0.014 ( -0.108%) -0.010 ( -0.080%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -0.8 ( -0.006%) -0.6 ( -0.005%)
Chequerplay rating Supernatural Supernatural
Luck Statistics:
Rolls marked very lucky 1 2
Rolls marked lucky 0 0
Rolls unmarked 17 15
Rolls marked unlucky 0 0
Rolls marked very unlucky 0 0
Luck total EMG (MWC) +0.605 ( +4.551%) +1.240 ( +9.549%)
Luck rate mEMG (MWC) +33.6 ( +0.253%) +73.0 ( +0.562%)
Luck rating Good dice, man! Go to Las Vegas
Cube Statistics:
Total cube decisions 18 17
Close or actual cube decisions 4 3
Doubles 0 1
Takes 0 0
Passes 1 0
Missed doubles below CP (EMG (MWC)) 2 (-0.096 ( -0.741%)) 0
Missed doubles above CP (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong doubles below DP (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong doubles above TG (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong takes (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Wrong passes (EMG (MWC)) 0 0
Error total EMG (MWC) -0.096 ( -0.741%) -0.000 ( -0.000%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -23.9 ( -0.185%) -0.0 ( -0.000%)
Cube decision rating Casual player Supernatural
Overall Statistics:
Error total EMG (MWC) -0.110 ( -0.850%) -0.010 ( -0.080%)
Error rate mEMG (MWC) -5.2 ( -0.040%) -0.5 ( -0.004%)
Snowie error rate -3.1 ( +0.000%) -0.3 ( +0.000%)
Overall rating Expert Supernatural
Actual result -7.74% +7.74%
Luck adjusted result -2.74% +2.74%
Luck based FIBS rating diff. -42.67
Error based abs. FIBS rating 2020.4 2041.0
Chequerplay errors rating loss 11.5 9.0
Cube errors rating loss 18.2 0.0
Spoiler
22/21 6/4 for me too. The 3-point anchor isn't that great - doesn't threaten the outboard too much, and not much more safety from attack than the ace. The White position is stiff and something's going to give soon, so we should be playing for maximum contact and maximum gain when we hit a shot. (If we can't hit a shot, well, we're sunk anyway)
Spoiler
one of the first "rules" of bg i learned is that once your opponent has made an advanced anchor its important for us to do the same. no the 3 pt isnt great, but it is better than just sitting back on the ace. 11-10 for the 1, he still needs to break his anchor for us to hit.
It's tied 4-4, so I've taken the liberty of extending the voting for 12 hours. Has anyone been swayed to change their vote?
gnu's assessment
Spoiler
The Herd's choice comes out on top in 2-ply analysis. The second place vote getter is 8th and a .09 error.
0-ply Rollout is more kind to 22/21 6/4, but still pegs it as a .06 error. Well done, Herd.
Both plays win about the same number of games and gammons, but the Herd's choice loses far fewer gammons.
Position ID: 4HPwAQPg88gAMg
Match ID: cAmlAAAACAAE
1. Rollout 24/22 11/10 Eq.: -0.366
0.406 0.093 0.008 - 0.594 0.141 0.009 CL -0.253 CF -0.366
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679344901 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2. Rollout 22/21 6/4 Eq.: -0.430 ( -0.063)
0.400 0.098 0.011 - 0.600 0.176 0.014 CL -0.316 CF -0.430
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 679344901 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
1. Cubeful 2-ply 24/22 11/10 Eq.: -0.275
0.419 0.097 0.002 - 0.581 0.144 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Cubeful 2-ply 24/22 8/7 Eq.: -0.305 ( -0.030)
0.418 0.097 0.002 - 0.582 0.159 0.006
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Cubeful 2-ply 24/23 24/22 Eq.: -0.307 ( -0.032)
0.411 0.087 0.002 - 0.589 0.140 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Cubeful 2-ply 11/10 6/4 Eq.: -0.345 ( -0.070)
0.415 0.100 0.003 - 0.585 0.173 0.011
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5. Cubeful 2-ply 24/23 6/4 Eq.: -0.349 ( -0.074)
0.419 0.099 0.003 - 0.581 0.186 0.011
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
6. Cubeful 2-ply 24/23 22/20 Eq.: -0.352 ( -0.077)
0.414 0.091 0.002 - 0.586 0.166 0.007
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
7. Cubeful 2-ply 22/21 13/11 Eq.: -0.358 ( -0.083)
0.412 0.092 0.002 - 0.588 0.168 0.008
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
8. Cubeful 2-ply 22/21 6/4 Eq.: -0.362 ( -0.087)
0.414 0.097 0.003 - 0.586 0.175 0.011
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
XG analysis of game 1
Spoiler
Herd Linus
• Level of Play World Champ. (-0.0007) World Class (-0.0071)
• Performance Rating 0.33 3.57
• Checker Play World Champ. (-0.0009) World Champ. (-0.0038)
• Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000) Advanced (-0.0203)
• Luck Quite lucky (+0.0101) Quite unlucky (-0.0101)
• Total Errors (Blunders) None 2
Equity (Cost) -0.014 (-0.10%) -0.143 (-1.10%)
Decisions 21 20
• Checker Errors (Blunders) None 1
Equity (Cost) -0.014 (-0.10%) -0.061 (-0.47%)
Unforced Moves 16 16
• Doubles (Blunders) None 1
Equity (Cost) -0.081 (-0.63%)
- Wrong Doubles
- Missed Doubles -0.081 (-0.63%)
Cube Decisions 5 3
• Take Decisions None 1
• Jokers 3 1
Luck (Cost) +0.363 (+2.93%) -0.363 (-2.93%)
Rolls 18 18