Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 10-3
votes: 9
Option 2: 24/22, 8/3
votes: 0
Option 3: 10/8, 6/1
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/3, 6/4
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 3 : Herd 5-2
Post by: diane on April 03, 2013, 12:06:16 AM
Post by: diane on April 03, 2013, 12:06:16 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3 : Herd 5-2
Post by: Julia_H on April 03, 2013, 10:16:14 AM
Post by: Julia_H on April 03, 2013, 10:16:14 AM
Spoiler
24/22 - waste of time, it's not in danger and currently gives us a double shot when White fails to cover the slotted man. Forget that. Now, where do we want to dump our men? Not on the ace, of course; not on our already rather large stacks. 6/4 8/3 looks too wide open - after a hit and cover we're in bad shape anyway, but after a hit with no cover, do we really want to be shooting back with blots strewn everywhere? I think 10/3 - the man on 10 will be a liability as White's board fills in, and we do need to start building a board behind White's anchor ready for when we actually hit something.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3 : Herd 5-2
Post by: KDP on April 03, 2013, 12:00:00 PM
Post by: KDP on April 03, 2013, 12:00:00 PM
Spoiler
10-3 the best choice for a bad roll.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3 : Herd 5-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 03, 2013, 10:39:19 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 03, 2013, 10:39:19 PM
No cube in sight yet, so no harm in posting a rollout
The Herd's choice is the least bad option
Position ID: yOfgAQPg88QAJg
Match ID: cImqAAAACAAE
1. Rollout 10/3 Eq.: -0.357
0.402 0.086 0.004 - 0.598 0.135 0.005 CL -0.265 CF -0.357
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2. Rollout 8/3 6/4 Eq.: -0.380 ( -0.023)
0.402 0.097 0.008 - 0.598 0.160 0.009 CL -0.285 CF -0.380
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
3. Rollout 10/8 6/1 Eq.: -0.436 ( -0.079)
0.382 0.083 0.005 - 0.618 0.143 0.007 CL -0.324 CF -0.436
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
4. Rollout 24/22 8/3 Eq.: -0.472 ( -0.115)
0.377 0.086 0.007 - 0.623 0.140 0.006 CL -0.333 CF -0.472
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Spoiler
The Herd's choice is the least bad option
Position ID: yOfgAQPg88QAJg
Match ID: cImqAAAACAAE
1. Rollout 10/3 Eq.: -0.357
0.402 0.086 0.004 - 0.598 0.135 0.005 CL -0.265 CF -0.357
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2. Rollout 8/3 6/4 Eq.: -0.380 ( -0.023)
0.402 0.097 0.008 - 0.598 0.160 0.009 CL -0.285 CF -0.380
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
3. Rollout 10/8 6/1 Eq.: -0.436 ( -0.079)
0.382 0.083 0.005 - 0.618 0.143 0.007 CL -0.324 CF -0.436
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
4. Rollout 24/22 8/3 Eq.: -0.472 ( -0.115)
0.377 0.086 0.007 - 0.623 0.140 0.006 CL -0.333 CF -0.472
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 678757093 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]