Poll
13/5 leaves 10 shakes where we will be forced to leave a shot.
6/1 6/3 leaves 2 shakes that force us to leave a shot.
6/1 5/2 leaves no rolls that force us to leave a shot.
Seems pretty clear.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/5
votes: 3
Option 2: 6/1, 6/3
votes: 0
Option 3: 6/1, 5/2
votes: 7
Option 4: 6/1, 4/1
votes: 0
Title: Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1
Post by: diane on April 18, 2013, 09:02:01 AM
Post by: diane on April 18, 2013, 09:02:01 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1
Post by: KDP on April 18, 2013, 11:53:26 AM
Post by: KDP on April 18, 2013, 11:53:26 AM
Spoiler
because of his extra checkers on the 15, 17 and 18 pts linus can wait a bit longer before he has to run off the bar. we dont have that luxury. moving 13-8 means our next 6 leaves a blot. i move 6-1 5-2
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Title: Re: Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1
Post by: Julia_H on April 18, 2013, 01:23:37 PM
Post by: Julia_H on April 18, 2013, 01:23:37 PM
Spoiler
I agree, but it's close... White can hang around on our bar for probably three rolls before having to break his board; we'll be forced off the mid well before then.
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Title: Re: Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on April 18, 2013, 06:00:53 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 18, 2013, 06:00:53 PM
Spoiler
13/5 leaves 10 shakes where we will be forced to leave a shot.
6/1 6/3 leaves 2 shakes that force us to leave a shot.
6/1 5/2 leaves no rolls that force us to leave a shot.
Seems pretty clear.
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Title: Re: Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1
Post by: Zorba on April 18, 2013, 09:52:34 PM
Post by: Zorba on April 18, 2013, 09:52:34 PM
Spoiler
We want to get home, since we're ahead in the race. We'll have to move the third checker off the midpoint anyway, 5-3 is a good roll to do it. Waiting might be right if Linus was about to break up the barpoint, but that is quite unlikely. So not playing 13/5 just postpones the problem, and creates an inferior board with more wastage, and makes small doubles a lot less effective next turn. Also, next turn we may not roll 7 pips or more, and be forced to mess up our board even more.
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Title: Re: Game 3, move 9 : Herd 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on April 22, 2013, 03:18:00 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 22, 2013, 03:18:00 PM
rollout
XG likes the shuffling plays better than the running play, although if you shuffle by playing both checkers off the six, the running play is better.
XGID=-ABBBCBb-----C-a-aabbbbb--:0:0:1:53:1:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 101 X-O: 1-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 53
1. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/2 eq:+0.452
Player: 64.73% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 35.27% (G:1.45% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.444..+0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/1 eq:+0.431 (-0.020)
Player: 63.97% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 36.03% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.423..+0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:+0.388 (-0.064)
Player: 61.49% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 38.51% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.382..+0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 01 second
4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:+0.384 (-0.068)
Player: 62.38% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 37.62% (G:1.93% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.376..+0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
5. 1-ply 13/8 5/2 eq:-0.072 (-0.524)
Player: 49.24% (G:2.39% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 50.76% (G:5.83% B:0.07%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
XG likes the shuffling plays better than the running play, although if you shuffle by playing both checkers off the six, the running play is better.
XGID=-ABBBCBb-----C-a-aabbbbb--:0:0:1:53:1:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:1 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 101 X-O: 1-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 53
1. Rollout¹ 6/1 5/2 eq:+0.452
Player: 64.73% (G:0.86% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 35.27% (G:1.45% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.444..+0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/1 eq:+0.431 (-0.020)
Player: 63.97% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 36.03% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.423..+0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:+0.388 (-0.064)
Player: 61.49% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 38.51% (G:1.58% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.382..+0.395) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 01 second
4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:+0.384 (-0.068)
Player: 62.38% (G:1.04% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 37.62% (G:1.93% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.376..+0.392) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
5. 1-ply 13/8 5/2 eq:-0.072 (-0.524)
Player: 49.24% (G:2.39% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 50.76% (G:5.83% B:0.07%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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