Poll
For money, his point of last take would be 6 pips down*, so if we were ahead by 6 pips he'd be at about 22% to win the game. Linus's takepoint AtS is 18%, so at 2% per pip, he could still take with an 8 pip deficit.
We are up by 18 pips in the race. This one ain't close. Ship it and see if he wants to play this game for the match.
*Using the trice count - subtract 5 from our pipcount, divide by 7, round down. (47-5)/7 == 6
Question: Double?
Option 1: Yes please
votes: 7
Option 2: Not now
votes: 1
Title: Game 4, move 14 : Herd to Cube
Post by: diane on May 09, 2013, 09:57:30 AM
Post by: diane on May 09, 2013, 09:57:30 AM
Clem isn't here to ask..but I thought we should revisit this anyway..
Title: Re: Game 4, move 14 : Herd to Cube
Post by: ah_clem on May 09, 2013, 12:10:39 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 09, 2013, 12:10:39 PM
Spoiler
For money, his point of last take would be 6 pips down*, so if we were ahead by 6 pips he'd be at about 22% to win the game. Linus's takepoint AtS is 18%, so at 2% per pip, he could still take with an 8 pip deficit.
We are up by 18 pips in the race. This one ain't close. Ship it and see if he wants to play this game for the match.
*Using the trice count - subtract 5 from our pipcount, divide by 7, round down. (47-5)/7 == 6
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 14 : Herd to Cube
Post by: ah_clem on May 09, 2013, 02:18:19 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 09, 2013, 02:18:19 PM
Diane,
I'd like to roll out all the recent decisions, and it would be a lot easier if i had the .sgf file instead of setting up each position by hand.
So, please post it as soon as it is convenient. thanks.
I'd like to roll out all the recent decisions, and it would be a lot easier if i had the .sgf file instead of setting up each position by hand.
So, please post it as soon as it is convenient. thanks.
Title: Re: Game 4, move 14 : Herd to Cube
Post by: ah_clem on May 10, 2013, 06:06:57 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 10, 2013, 06:06:57 PM
rollout
at 92% GWC, it's pretty clearly a double/pass.
XGID=-BCAC-D--------a---bdcbba-:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:5:3
X:Herd O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 65 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 91.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 91.99% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.840, Double=+2.355
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.969 (-0.031)
Double/Take: +1.983 (+0.983)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.001 (+0.968..+0.970)
Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (+1.983..+1.983)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 25.8 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
at 92% GWC, it's pretty clearly a double/pass.
XGID=-BCAC-D--------a---bdcbba-:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:5:3
X:Herd O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 65 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 91.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 91.99% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 8.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.840, Double=+2.355
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.969 (-0.031)
Double/Take: +1.983 (+0.983)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.001 (+0.968..+0.970)
Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (+1.983..+1.983)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 25.8 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]