Poll
I like keeping a spare on the 8 with 6/4 6/2. If we strip the 8 then a roll of 62 forces us to abandon it.
Yeah, making the 4 point is obvious, and may be best, but I'll vote for 6/4 6/2. We'll make the four point before long, so no real need to make it right now.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 6/2, 6/4
votes: 2
Option 2: 8/4, 6/4
votes: 6
Option 3: 8/2
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 4 : Herd 4-2
Post by: diane on April 26, 2013, 08:59:01 PM
Post by: diane on April 26, 2013, 08:59:01 PM
move?
Title: Re: Game 4, move 4 : Herd 4-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 26, 2013, 11:44:44 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 26, 2013, 11:44:44 PM
Spoiler
I like keeping a spare on the 8 with 6/4 6/2. If we strip the 8 then a roll of 62 forces us to abandon it.
Yeah, making the 4 point is obvious, and may be best, but I'll vote for 6/4 6/2. We'll make the four point before long, so no real need to make it right now.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 4 : Herd 4-2
Post by: KDP on April 27, 2013, 02:43:07 AM
Post by: KDP on April 27, 2013, 02:43:07 AM
Spoiler
i make the 4
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Title: Re: Game 4, move 4 : Herd 4-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 29, 2013, 04:29:55 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 29, 2013, 04:29:55 PM
rollout
A harder decision this time with two viable candidate plays that are close enough to warrant a full rollout.
6/4 6/2 is XG's choice, but the Herd's play is within the margin of error after a full 1296 rollout.
XGID=--A--bE-C---dF---abcba----:0:0:1:42:3:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 146 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 42
1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/2 eq:+0.385
Player: 64.61% (G:2.87% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 35.39% (G:2.12% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.376..+0.395) - [84.2%]
Duration: 17 minutes 30 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.378 (-0.007)
Player: 64.36% (G:2.45% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 35.64% (G:1.85% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.369..+0.388) - [15.8%]
Duration: 18 minutes 19 seconds
3. XG Roller++ 8/2 eq:+0.325 (-0.060)
Player: 62.82% (G:2.64% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 37.18% (G:2.56% B:0.05%)
4. 2-ply 13/7 eq:+0.063 (-0.322)
Player: 57.06% (G:3.67% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 42.94% (G:7.25% B:0.20%)
5. 1-ply 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.054 (-0.331)
Player: 56.36% (G:3.76% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 43.64% (G:6.36% B:0.30%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
A harder decision this time with two viable candidate plays that are close enough to warrant a full rollout.
6/4 6/2 is XG's choice, but the Herd's play is within the margin of error after a full 1296 rollout.
XGID=--A--bE-C---dF---abcba----:0:0:1:42:3:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 146 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 42
1. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/2 eq:+0.385
Player: 64.61% (G:2.87% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 35.39% (G:2.12% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.376..+0.395) - [84.2%]
Duration: 17 minutes 30 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/4 eq:+0.378 (-0.007)
Player: 64.36% (G:2.45% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 35.64% (G:1.85% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.369..+0.388) - [15.8%]
Duration: 18 minutes 19 seconds
3. XG Roller++ 8/2 eq:+0.325 (-0.060)
Player: 62.82% (G:2.64% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 37.18% (G:2.56% B:0.05%)
4. 2-ply 13/7 eq:+0.063 (-0.322)
Player: 57.06% (G:3.67% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 42.94% (G:7.25% B:0.20%)
5. 1-ply 13/9 6/4 eq:+0.054 (-0.331)
Player: 56.36% (G:3.76% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 43.64% (G:6.36% B:0.30%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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