Poll
Prepare to clear the midpoint with 13/8. 65 or doubles will then allow us to clear it safely, and we should have several rolls in which to get "lucky".
Covering the blot on then three is probably not far behind equity wise, but I think playing off the midpoint should be best.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/8
votes: 6
Option 2: 8/3
votes: 1
Option 3: 6/3, 4/2
votes: 1
Option 4: 4/1, 3/1
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 7 : Herd 3-2
Post by: diane on April 30, 2013, 10:25:25 AM
Post by: diane on April 30, 2013, 10:25:25 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 4, move 7 : Herd 3-2
Post by: KDP on April 30, 2013, 11:45:12 AM
Post by: KDP on April 30, 2013, 11:45:12 AM
Spoiler
i think this is another case of the simplest solution being the best. 13-8
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Title: Re: Game 4, move 7 : Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on April 30, 2013, 02:32:20 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 30, 2013, 02:32:20 PM
Spoiler
Prepare to clear the midpoint with 13/8. 65 or doubles will then allow us to clear it safely, and we should have several rolls in which to get "lucky".
Covering the blot on then three is probably not far behind equity wise, but I think playing off the midpoint should be best.
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Title: Re: Game 4, move 7 : Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on May 10, 2013, 04:23:31 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 10, 2013, 04:23:31 PM
Rollout
The Herd's move comes out on top in 3-ply analysis and XGR++, but a full rollout favors 8/6 4/1, although not by much.
Just like last time, XG likes to slot the lower points.
XGID=--AABbCBC---bC----accbb---:0:0:1:32:3:1:0:5:3
X:Herd O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 120 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 8/6 4/1 eq:+0.522
Player: 68.76% (G:3.41% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 31.24% (G:1.33% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.514..+0.530) - [97.5%]
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.511 (-0.011)
Player: 68.38% (G:1.67% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 31.62% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.503..+0.518) - [2.4%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.503 (-0.019)
Player: 68.08% (G:3.74% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 31.92% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.494..+0.512) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:+0.492 (-0.030)
Player: 67.84% (G:1.66% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 32.16% (G:1.04% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.485..+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds
5. XG Roller++ 4/1 3/1 eq:+0.486 (-0.036)
Player: 66.84% (G:2.71% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 33.16% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The Herd's move comes out on top in 3-ply analysis and XGR++, but a full rollout favors 8/6 4/1, although not by much.
Just like last time, XG likes to slot the lower points.
XGID=--AABbCBC---bC----accbb---:0:0:1:32:3:1:0:5:3
X:Herd O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 120 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 8/6 4/1 eq:+0.522
Player: 68.76% (G:3.41% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 31.24% (G:1.33% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.514..+0.530) - [97.5%]
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 eq:+0.511 (-0.011)
Player: 68.38% (G:1.67% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 31.62% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.503..+0.518) - [2.4%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.503 (-0.019)
Player: 68.08% (G:3.74% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 31.92% (G:1.48% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.494..+0.512) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 8/3 eq:+0.492 (-0.030)
Player: 67.84% (G:1.66% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 32.16% (G:1.04% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.485..+0.500) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds
5. XG Roller++ 4/1 3/1 eq:+0.486 (-0.036)
Player: 66.84% (G:2.71% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 33.16% (G:1.55% B:0.02%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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