Poll
I've been dinged repeatedly by XG and gnu for playing lover's leap in similar positions. 22/11 is typically ~.05 better than 24/13.
The reason is that the checker on the 22 is more likely to be attacked, we don't really want another checker on the bloated midpoint, and the 11 makes a nice builder. Add 'em up and you get something better than the auto-pilot play.
No cubes this game, so we should be able to do rollouts immediately. I'll hold off it the position looks "static" i.e. we may be faced with a simolar decision next roll.
rollout
3-ply analysis says that Lover's leap is about a .02 error, but a full rollout shows a much smaller difference - after 1296 trials it's still within the margin of error. 22/11 comes out on top, but not by much.
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-db-A-A-:0:0:1:65:4:1:1:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 22/11 eq:-0.208
Player: 48.27% (G:15.13% B:2.06%)
Opponent: 51.73% (G:16.90% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.215..-0.202) - [90.7%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:-0.214 (-0.006)
Player: 48.66% (G:15.47% B:2.10%)
Opponent: 51.34% (G:18.24% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.220..-0.208) - [9.3%]
Duration: 19 minutes 38 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Question: Move 
Option 1: 24/13
votes: 3
Option 2: 22/11
votes: 5
Option 3: 13/2
votes: 0
Title: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: diane on May 12, 2013, 12:07:13 AM
Post by: diane on May 12, 2013, 12:07:13 AM
After Herds move, Linus rolled 3-1, and made the 5 point - as I just couldn't see him doing anything else at that point.
Herd now up again with this 6-5.
Herd now up again with this 6-5.
Title: Re: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: Julia_H on May 12, 2013, 11:56:40 AM
Post by: Julia_H on May 12, 2013, 11:56:40 AM
Spoiler
Both running moves look good, but 22/11 both moves the one more vulnerable to attack, and puts an extra builder in our outfield. Seems clear to me...
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Title: Re: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: KDP on May 12, 2013, 12:09:13 PM
Post by: KDP on May 12, 2013, 12:09:13 PM
Spoiler
i dont think there is a huge difference between either plays. at this point in the match we just need to win this game. im more inclined to move the guy off the 24. it safety's a checker and moves the man which is farther away than the other, which is often the hardest to get home. one blot is better than 2 for me.
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Title: Re: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: KDP on May 12, 2013, 12:11:14 PM
Post by: KDP on May 12, 2013, 12:11:14 PM
one more thing, even though 13-2 is a candidate and legal play i cant honestly see anyone doing this. the difference between 24-13 and 22-11 is minimal.
Title: Re: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on May 12, 2013, 01:42:43 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 12, 2013, 01:42:43 PM
Spoiler
I've been dinged repeatedly by XG and gnu for playing lover's leap in similar positions. 22/11 is typically ~.05 better than 24/13.
The reason is that the checker on the 22 is more likely to be attacked, we don't really want another checker on the bloated midpoint, and the 11 makes a nice builder. Add 'em up and you get something better than the auto-pilot play.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: Zorba on May 12, 2013, 01:49:49 PM
Post by: Zorba on May 12, 2013, 01:49:49 PM
Spoiler
This is an interesting choice with an early 6-5 that comes up every now and then with split backcheckers. Just run one man to complete safety with 24/13, leaving the other backman closer to the mid but also more in danger of being attacked; or run the more advanced backman around the mid, vulnerable to a few indirect shots but also useful as a builder, while the other backman sits safely back on 24, but a bit farther away from the mid?
The bots sure taught me to move the more advanced backchecker more often. So what are important factors that come into play?
That looks like 3 factors clearly in favour of 22/11 and one neutral, so I'm pretty confident that 22/11 is best and 24/13 an error (but not a blunder).
The bots sure taught me to move the more advanced backchecker more often. So what are important factors that come into play?
- Number of indirect shots at the run-around checker: here it's only 6-4 for 2 shots.
- Usefulness as builder: all we got is an extra builder on 8 so far, so the builder on 11 is very useful
- Danger of advanced backchecker if playing 24/13: Linus already made his fivepoint, he'll be very eager to attack. The gammon-go-ish matchscore is an extra incentive to attack.
- How do specific numbers play for opponent? Strong duplication can be a factor favouring one play over an other. It doesn't seem very relevant here, attacking plays at our 22 backchecker are not really duplicated, nor is the 6-4 hit at our 11pt checker duplicated with the other play.
That looks like 3 factors clearly in favour of 22/11 and one neutral, so I'm pretty confident that 22/11 is best and 24/13 an error (but not a blunder).
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Title: Re: Game 5, move 1 : Herd 6-5
Post by: ah_clem on May 13, 2013, 04:09:05 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 13, 2013, 04:09:05 PM
No cubes this game, so we should be able to do rollouts immediately. I'll hold off it the position looks "static" i.e. we may be faced with a simolar decision next roll.
rollout
Spoiler
3-ply analysis says that Lover's leap is about a .02 error, but a full rollout shows a much smaller difference - after 1296 trials it's still within the margin of error. 22/11 comes out on top, but not by much.
XGID=-b----E-D---eD---b-db-A-A-:0:0:1:65:4:1:1:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 22/11 eq:-0.208
Player: 48.27% (G:15.13% B:2.06%)
Opponent: 51.73% (G:16.90% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.215..-0.202) - [90.7%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/13 eq:-0.214 (-0.006)
Player: 48.66% (G:15.47% B:2.10%)
Opponent: 51.34% (G:18.24% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.220..-0.208) - [9.3%]
Duration: 19 minutes 38 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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