Poll
Make the bar point. That's obvious. Then slot the back of the mini-prime with 11/9. I don't see any value to moving up the runner - all you do is reduce the number of escaping rolls and make it more vulnerable to attack. If we could reach the 21 where the runner sees daylight it might be worth stepping up, but the 22 is not worth moving to.
11/9 8/7(2)
Question: Move 
Option 1: 24/22, 8/7 (2)
votes: 3
Option 2: 11/9, 8/7 (2)
votes: 6
Option 3: 24/23, 11/8
votes: 0
Option 4: 24/23, 11/10, 8/7 (2)
votes: 0
Option 5: 11/7
votes: 0
Title: Game 5, move 2 : Herd 1-1
Post by: diane on May 13, 2013, 10:59:19 AM
Post by: diane on May 13, 2013, 10:59:19 AM
move?
Title: Re: Game 5, move 2 : Herd 1-1
Post by: ah_clem on May 13, 2013, 12:46:06 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 13, 2013, 12:46:06 PM
Spoiler
Make the bar point. That's obvious. Then slot the back of the mini-prime with 11/9. I don't see any value to moving up the runner - all you do is reduce the number of escaping rolls and make it more vulnerable to attack. If we could reach the 21 where the runner sees daylight it might be worth stepping up, but the 22 is not worth moving to.
11/9 8/7(2)
[close]
Title: Re: Game 5, move 2 : Herd 1-1
Post by: ah_clem on May 14, 2013, 02:43:15 PM
Post by: ah_clem on May 14, 2013, 02:43:15 PM
rollout
The Herd's play comes out on top again. 24/22 8/7(2) is a .05 error costing just under 1% MWC.
XGID=-----bE-D--AcD--bb-db---A-:0:0:1:11:4:1:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 147 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7(2) eq:-0.492
Player: 35.39% (G:6.82% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 64.61% (G:19.47% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.498..-0.487) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 35 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/10 8/7(2) eq:-0.514 (-0.022)
Player: 35.09% (G:7.19% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 64.91% (G:21.04% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.520..-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 05 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/7 eq:-0.531 (-0.038)
Player: 34.49% (G:6.84% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 65.51% (G:21.45% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.536..-0.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/8 eq:-0.536 (-0.044)
Player: 35.21% (G:7.04% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 64.79% (G:23.43% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.542..-0.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 15 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7(2) eq:-0.541 (-0.049)
Player: 34.44% (G:6.42% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 65.56% (G:22.42% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.547..-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The Herd's play comes out on top again. 24/22 8/7(2) is a .05 error costing just under 1% MWC.
XGID=-----bE-D--AcD--bb-db---A-:0:0:1:11:4:1:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 147 X-O: 4-1/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/7(2) eq:-0.492
Player: 35.39% (G:6.82% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 64.61% (G:19.47% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.498..-0.487) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 35 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/10 8/7(2) eq:-0.514 (-0.022)
Player: 35.09% (G:7.19% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 64.91% (G:21.04% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.520..-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 05 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/7 eq:-0.531 (-0.038)
Player: 34.49% (G:6.84% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 65.51% (G:21.45% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.536..-0.526) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/23 11/8 eq:-0.536 (-0.044)
Player: 35.21% (G:7.04% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 64.79% (G:23.43% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.542..-0.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 15 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7(2) eq:-0.541 (-0.049)
Player: 34.44% (G:6.42% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 65.56% (G:22.42% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.547..-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 54 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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