Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 24-14
votes: 0
Option 2: 8/2, 6/2
votes: 3
Option 3: 24/18, 13/9
votes: 4
Option 4: 20/24, 13/7
votes: 0
Option 5: 13/9, 13/7
votes: 0
Title: Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4
Post by: diane on June 23, 2013, 12:13:37 PM
Post by: diane on June 23, 2013, 12:13:37 PM
Welcome Roderick, to Fibsforum match 16...best of luck and enjoy :-)
How would the herd like to open?
How would the herd like to open?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4
Post by: KDP on June 23, 2013, 02:44:43 PM
Post by: KDP on June 23, 2013, 02:44:43 PM
Spoiler
there probably isnt a whole lot of difference between the top 3 moves i think it comes down to style differences. i would play 24-18 13-9 but if my doubles partner wanted to make the 2 pt i wouldnt put up too much of a fight. if im playing a stronger opponent i would make the 2 against a weaker opponent i play 18 9. i think the running play is the weakest of the 3.
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Title: Re: Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4
Post by: Roderick on June 23, 2013, 10:54:37 PM
Post by: Roderick on June 23, 2013, 10:54:37 PM
Hi all! Thanks! And gl, too.
I believe that at GS running all the way with an opening 6-4 is best.
I believe that at GS running all the way with an opening 6-4 is best.
Title: Re: Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4
Post by: stog on June 23, 2013, 11:27:21 PM
Post by: stog on June 23, 2013, 11:27:21 PM
be wary Herd; this man is a true 'hustler! ;)
Spoiler
i voted for the 2 point forever wary of an early lucky blitz -- although i was always taught to take chances early!
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on June 24, 2013, 03:22:40 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 24, 2013, 03:22:40 PM
voting is over, and I missed it. No spoiler due to voting being over.
Opening rolls have been extensively rolled out by the computers. 64 is no exception. Making the deuce comes out on top for money play, but by the narrowest margin. Basically, we have these stats
Play win % gammon win gammon loss
Point 49.8 15.8 14.2
Run 50.6 11.8 12.9
Split 50.3 13.6 13.7
Running wins the most games, so it's best at DMP. It also loses the fewest gammons, so it's best at GS. For money, the additional gammon wins from the pointing play (4%) outweigh the additional losses (.8%). At 5a5a where gammons are even more valuable than fro money, pointing is the way to go. That said, all three are playable.
And it should be emphasized that like slotting an opening of 21, you'll only gain the benefits of the additional gammons if you can play aggressively to make those gammons happen (hat tip to Tim Chow here) so if you don't have an aggressive style it's likely better to split or run.
[/size][/tt]
see http://www.bgonline.org/firstmove/46.html (http://www.bgonline.org/firstmove/46.html)
Opening rolls have been extensively rolled out by the computers. 64 is no exception. Making the deuce comes out on top for money play, but by the narrowest margin. Basically, we have these stats
Play win % gammon win gammon loss
Point 49.8 15.8 14.2
Run 50.6 11.8 12.9
Split 50.3 13.6 13.7
Running wins the most games, so it's best at DMP. It also loses the fewest gammons, so it's best at GS. For money, the additional gammon wins from the pointing play (4%) outweigh the additional losses (.8%). At 5a5a where gammons are even more valuable than fro money, pointing is the way to go. That said, all three are playable.
And it should be emphasized that like slotting an opening of 21, you'll only gain the benefits of the additional gammons if you can play aggressively to make those gammons happen (hat tip to Tim Chow here) so if you don't have an aggressive style it's likely better to split or run.
[/size][/tt]
see http://www.bgonline.org/firstmove/46.html (http://www.bgonline.org/firstmove/46.html)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 0 : Herd 6-4
Post by: ah_clem on June 24, 2013, 03:39:52 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 24, 2013, 03:39:52 PM
Oh, and it's part of XG's opening book, so I don't have to waste cycles rolling it out myself. It doesn't get much closer than this, folks.
ROLLOUT
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10
1. Book¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.013
Player: 49.79% (G:16.18% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 50.21% (G:14.67% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.015) - [66.9%]
2. Book¹ 24/18 13/9 eq:+0.012 (-0.001)
Player: 50.33% (G:13.86% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 49.67% (G:13.89% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.014) - [33.1%]
3. Book² 24/14 eq:+0.004 (-0.009)
Player: 50.58% (G:12.47% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 49.42% (G:13.71% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (0.000..+0.008) - [0.0%]
4. Book³ 24/20 13/7 eq:-0.057 (-0.070)
Player: 48.44% (G:13.83% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 51.56% (G:14.22% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.064..-0.050) - [0.0%]
5. Book4 24/20 24/18 eq:-0.078 (-0.091)
Player: 48.73% (G:11.23% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 51.27% (G:14.22% B:0.49%)
¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
²Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
4Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
ROLLOUT
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:5:10
1. Book¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.013
Player: 49.79% (G:16.18% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 50.21% (G:14.67% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.015) - [66.9%]
2. Book¹ 24/18 13/9 eq:+0.012 (-0.001)
Player: 50.33% (G:13.86% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 49.67% (G:13.89% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.010..+0.014) - [33.1%]
3. Book² 24/14 eq:+0.004 (-0.009)
Player: 50.58% (G:12.47% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 49.42% (G:13.71% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (0.000..+0.008) - [0.0%]
4. Book³ 24/20 13/7 eq:-0.057 (-0.070)
Player: 48.44% (G:13.83% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 51.56% (G:14.22% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.064..-0.050) - [0.0%]
5. Book4 24/20 24/18 eq:-0.078 (-0.091)
Player: 48.73% (G:11.23% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 51.27% (G:14.22% B:0.49%)
¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
²Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
4Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2