Poll
Question: Move 
Option 1: 23/21, 13/8
votes: 5
Option 2: 23/16
votes: 0
Option 3: 23/18, 13/11
votes: 2
Option 4: 13/6
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 5-2
Post by: diane on July 08, 2013, 09:22:20 AM
Post by: diane on July 08, 2013, 09:22:20 AM
Move?
Title: Re: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 5-2
Post by: Roderick on July 09, 2013, 02:03:10 PM
Post by: Roderick on July 09, 2013, 02:03:10 PM
I like running 23/16 best. Surprised that that didn't get even 1 out of 9 votes.
Up and down (23/21) is reasonable but it feels inflexible - you strip the midpoint. However a 4th checker on the 8 is often valuable and is so in this position. You can get pointed on on the 4 and your opponent will aggressively attack.
As far as 23/16: if you get missed you're in good shape. But the hits with fewer return hits come more frequently.
23/18, 13/11 is wrong by quite a bit. It leaves a tremendous number of hits, several of which point and the spare on the 11 can only be used to make the 5 point because the midpoint is stripped.
Up and down (23/21) is reasonable but it feels inflexible - you strip the midpoint. However a 4th checker on the 8 is often valuable and is so in this position. You can get pointed on on the 4 and your opponent will aggressively attack.
As far as 23/16: if you get missed you're in good shape. But the hits with fewer return hits come more frequently.
23/18, 13/11 is wrong by quite a bit. It leaves a tremendous number of hits, several of which point and the spare on the 11 can only be used to make the 5 point because the midpoint is stripped.
Title: Re: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 5-2
Post by: Zorba on July 09, 2013, 06:59:28 PM
Post by: Zorba on July 09, 2013, 06:59:28 PM
I thought the running move 23/16 would be interesting if we had more of a racing advantage. Here it is effectively only 1 pip, so basically an equal race. So even if the double shot is missed, it's not a very clear advantage. It would be nice to escape one backchecker though, with Roderick's two still pinned down on our acepoint; it probably leads to a timing advantage.
Title: Re: Game 2, move 2 : Herd 5-2
Post by: Roderick on July 10, 2013, 01:05:30 AM
Post by: Roderick on July 10, 2013, 01:05:30 AM
ROLLOUT.....
The XG+ results had them as 0.001 different.
A 1296 XG rollout put 23/16 ahead by 0.007 (+0.0213) over 23/21, 13/8 (+0.206) with an 81% chance of 23/16 being best. I'm not going to roll it out until statistical certainty. The plays are close but the jump should be something that everyone at least considers in a position like this.
The XG+ results had them as 0.001 different.
A 1296 XG rollout put 23/16 ahead by 0.007 (+0.0213) over 23/21, 13/8 (+0.206) with an 81% chance of 23/16 being best. I'm not going to roll it out until statistical certainty. The plays are close but the jump should be something that everyone at least considers in a position like this.