FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 17 => Topic started by: stog on December 31, 2013, 03:39:40 PM
2 1
Here goes:
The gammon isn't too big a thread, I have an edge in the race and choose to fight for it rather than wait for 22 or some other scenario.
I think I will win slightly more 4-cube games and loose slightly more gammons - question is if it's a good bargain.
23/21, 3/2
Spoiler
Not splitting would be a blunder. Splitting wins 5.5% more games, but also loses 5.5% more gammons. For money, 1% extra wins compensates for 2% gammon losses giving a gammon value of 0.5; with the cube on 4 with only 5 points to go, the gammon value is less. Splitting is correct for money and even more so at this matchscore situation. At gammon save scores (f.i. leading crawford 2-away) it is unclear which move would be best.
1. Rollout 23/21 3/2 Eq.: -0.4848
0.2513 0.0561 0.0041 - 0.7487 0.1306 0.0053 CL -0.5384 CF -0.4848
[0.0029 0.0047 0.0014 - 0.0029 0.0056 0.0015 CL 0.0064 CF 0.0074]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 23/21 4/3 Eq.: -0.5067 ( -0.0219)
0.2445 0.0493 0.0049 - 0.7555 0.1494 0.0068 CL -0.5593 CF -0.5067
[0.0026 0.0046 0.0013 - 0.0026 0.0063 0.0017 CL 0.0059 CF 0.0066]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 23/21 5/4 Eq.: -0.5188 ( -0.0341)
0.2392 0.0488 0.0033 - 0.7608 0.1450 0.0053 CL -0.5726 CF -0.5188
[0.0027 0.0049 0.0012 - 0.0027 0.0062 0.0012 CL 0.0064 CF 0.0071]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Rollout 3/1 2/1 Eq.: -0.5900 ( -0.1052)
0.1963 0.0186 0.0005 - 0.8037 0.0743 0.0057 CL -0.6378 CF -0.5900
[0.0023 0.0049 0.0001 - 0.0023 0.0045 0.0038 CL 0.0049 CF 0.0055]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
5. Rollout 4/1 Eq.: -0.5939 ( -0.1091)
0.1949 0.0159 0.0002 - 0.8051 0.0766 0.0111 CL -0.6414 CF -0.5939
[0.0027 0.0067 0.0003 - 0.0027 0.0043 0.0057 CL 0.0058 CF 0.0065]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]