Poll
This is very close, a matter of technique. Usually you'd want to put your spares on the highest points in your board because it's safest during the bear-in and -off against an anchor, but here there's an additional complication with situations where el_micho is forced to run, and we'd like to attack him in the outfield by hanging back as far as possible, but also have maximum chances to point on the remaining checker. Still, the play putting the spares on the 6 and 5 points comes out best, but the first two moves are too close to call with this rollout.
1. Rollout 18/6 16/10 11/5 Eq.: +0.7545
0.8765 0.0715 0.0050 - 0.1235 0.0031 0.0000 CL +0.7850 CF +0.7545
[0.0007 0.0014 0.0012 - 0.0007 0.0044 0.0004 CL 0.0015 CF 0.0017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 18/12 16/4 11/5 Eq.: +0.7515 ( -0.0030)
0.8721 0.0902 0.0089 - 0.1279 0.0063 0.0001 CL +0.7846 CF +0.7515
[0.0008 0.0017 0.0016 - 0.0008 0.0013 0.0000 CL 0.0017 CF 0.0019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 18/6 16/4 Eq.: +0.7375 ( -0.0169)
0.8682 0.0768 0.0061 - 0.1318 0.0038 0.0000 CL +0.7711 CF +0.7375
[0.0008 0.0016 0.0011 - 0.0008 0.0012 0.0000 CL 0.0016 CF 0.0018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Question: 
Option 1: 18/6 16/4
Option 2: 16/4 11/5 18/12
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 19 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 01, 2014, 01:39:24 PM
Post by: stog on January 01, 2014, 01:39:24 PM
ok elmicho rolled 5 2 last move so i made the forced play for him..
we have now rolled 66 (from the trees)
please ask for more options if required (i didn't include shifting the 7 point options)
we have now rolled 66 (from the trees)
please ask for more options if required (i didn't include shifting the 7 point options)
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 19 Herd to play
Post by: Zorba on January 04, 2014, 11:01:26 PM
Post by: Zorba on January 04, 2014, 11:01:26 PM
Spoiler
This is very close, a matter of technique. Usually you'd want to put your spares on the highest points in your board because it's safest during the bear-in and -off against an anchor, but here there's an additional complication with situations where el_micho is forced to run, and we'd like to attack him in the outfield by hanging back as far as possible, but also have maximum chances to point on the remaining checker. Still, the play putting the spares on the 6 and 5 points comes out best, but the first two moves are too close to call with this rollout.
1. Rollout 18/6 16/10 11/5 Eq.: +0.7545
0.8765 0.0715 0.0050 - 0.1235 0.0031 0.0000 CL +0.7850 CF +0.7545
[0.0007 0.0014 0.0012 - 0.0007 0.0044 0.0004 CL 0.0015 CF 0.0017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 18/12 16/4 11/5 Eq.: +0.7515 ( -0.0030)
0.8721 0.0902 0.0089 - 0.1279 0.0063 0.0001 CL +0.7846 CF +0.7515
[0.0008 0.0017 0.0016 - 0.0008 0.0013 0.0000 CL 0.0017 CF 0.0019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 18/6 16/4 Eq.: +0.7375 ( -0.0169)
0.8682 0.0768 0.0061 - 0.1318 0.0038 0.0000 CL +0.7711 CF +0.7375
[0.0008 0.0016 0.0011 - 0.0008 0.0012 0.0000 CL 0.0016 CF 0.0018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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