Poll
The race is close enough (~24 pips) and his board is weak enough that ripping off two and continuing to block fours seems right. We're only forced to leave a blot with a roll of 64 and then he has to hit it and contain it. I'll take that risk.
Question: 
Option 1: 5 off 1 off
Option 2: 6/5 6/1
Option 3: 5 off 4/3
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 25 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 03, 2014, 12:22:26 PM
Post by: stog on January 03, 2014, 12:22:26 PM
5 1
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 25 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 03, 2014, 01:18:59 PM
Post by: stog on January 03, 2014, 01:18:59 PM
Spoiler
although taking 2 off leaves us vulnerable to 64 next throw, it ensures we get 2 off, as well as stopping our opponents double 44, and keeps us in race if he throws a bigger double
[close]
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 25 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 03, 2014, 09:08:47 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 03, 2014, 09:08:47 PM
Spoiler
The race is close enough (~24 pips) and his board is weak enough that ripping off two and continuing to block fours seems right. We're only forced to leave a blot with a roll of 64 and then he has to hit it and contain it. I'll take that risk.
[close]
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 25 Herd to play
Post by: Zorba on January 04, 2014, 11:37:12 PM
Post by: Zorba on January 04, 2014, 11:37:12 PM
GNUbg rollout:
Ripping two off wins most games, and most gammons.
1. Rollout 5/off 1/off Eq.: +0.9543
0.9637 0.0745 0.0024 - 0.0363 0.0000 0.0000 CL +0.9619 CF +0.9543
[0.0006 0.0011 0.0020 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0013 CF 0.0014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
657 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 5/off 4/3 Eq.: +0.9434 ( -0.0108)
0.9606 0.0662 0.0015 - 0.0394 0.0000 0.0000 CL +0.9518 CF +0.9434
[0.0005 0.0011 0.0005 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0011 CF 0.0013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 6/5 6/1 Eq.: +0.9091 ( -0.0452)
0.9509 0.0372 0.0008 - 0.0491 0.0000 0.0000 CL +0.9191 CF +0.9091
[0.0005 0.0007 0.0003 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0010 CF 0.0012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
654 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Spoiler
Ripping two off wins most games, and most gammons.
1. Rollout 5/off 1/off Eq.: +0.9543
0.9637 0.0745 0.0024 - 0.0363 0.0000 0.0000 CL +0.9619 CF +0.9543
[0.0006 0.0011 0.0020 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0013 CF 0.0014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
657 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Rollout 5/off 4/3 Eq.: +0.9434 ( -0.0108)
0.9606 0.0662 0.0015 - 0.0394 0.0000 0.0000 CL +0.9518 CF +0.9434
[0.0005 0.0011 0.0005 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0011 CF 0.0013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Rollout 6/5 6/1 Eq.: +0.9091 ( -0.0452)
0.9509 0.0372 0.0008 - 0.0491 0.0000 0.0000 CL +0.9191 CF +0.9091
[0.0005 0.0007 0.0003 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 CL 0.0010 CF 0.0012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
654 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]