Spoiler
I think we need to hit here - when playing a backgame, I usually try to win going forward if the opportunity presents itself and here it has.
After 13/11, keep moving to the 10 where the blot observes the open four point, and be willing to hit loose on it if he enters there.
rollout
Spoiler
No surprises here.
XGID=---B-BCB---adB---d-dbBB---:0:0:1:21:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X X |
| X O | | O O X X |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 132 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 21
1. XG Roller++ 13/11* 11/10 eq:-0.086
Player: 46.46% (G:13.33% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 53.54% (G:12.89% B:0.48%)
2. XG Roller++ 13/11* 6/5 eq:-0.108 (-0.022)
Player: 45.38% (G:12.43% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 54.62% (G:12.95% B:0.48%)
3. XG Roller++ 22/21 13/11* eq:-0.111 (-0.024)
Player: 45.34% (G:12.60% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 54.66% (G:14.08% B:0.58%)
4. 3-ply 13/11* 7/6 eq:-0.160 (-0.073)
Player: 42.87% (G:12.10% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 57.13% (G:14.46% B:0.50%)
5. 2-ply 13/11* 3/2 eq:-0.258 (-0.172)
Player: 38.35% (G:8.87% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 61.65% (G:19.67% B:0.85%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2