Poll
If gammons counted I'd hit here, but with it being basically DMP I don't think hitting is the right idea - 13 rolls put us on the bar and we only have 17 covers. I like 18/13 as it leaves only 2 shots and gives us at least a direct shot if he leaps our prime.
BTW, 15/13 18/15 is the same play as 18/13, so I substituted 18/16 15/12.
I'm going to go along with Paul. I was just compiling a set of "rules of thumb" the other day and "whack a blot on the edge of your prime" was one off them. How quickly I forget...
Question: 
Option 1: 5/2* 18/16
Option 2: 5/2* 15/13
Option 3: 18/13
Option 4: 15/12 18/16
Option 5: 7/2*
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 20 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 11, 2014, 08:02:22 PM
Post by: stog on January 11, 2014, 08:02:22 PM
32
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 20 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 11, 2014, 09:00:54 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 11, 2014, 09:00:54 PM
Spoiler
If gammons counted I'd hit here, but with it being basically DMP I don't think hitting is the right idea - 13 rolls put us on the bar and we only have 17 covers. I like 18/13 as it leaves only 2 shots and gives us at least a direct shot if he leaps our prime.
BTW, 15/13 18/15 is the same play as 18/13, so I substituted 18/16 15/12.
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 20 Herd to play
Post by: dorbel on January 11, 2014, 10:43:19 PM
Post by: dorbel on January 11, 2014, 10:43:19 PM
Spoiler
As always when a straggler is at the edge of the five prime, hitting is mandatory and any other play is hopelessly wrong. You can't just allow White into the outfield with his next six. I would combine that with 18/16, no need to give the 1/1 joker when it doesn't gain anything.
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 20 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 12, 2014, 12:08:45 AM
Post by: ah_clem on January 12, 2014, 12:08:45 AM
Spoiler
I'm going to go along with Paul. I was just compiling a set of "rules of thumb" the other day and "whack a blot on the edge of your prime" was one off them. How quickly I forget...
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 20 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 13, 2014, 08:09:30 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 13, 2014, 08:09:30 PM
rollout
Hitting here is a must. Anything else is a whopper, and at a score where gammons mattered, a really big whopper.
XGID=--aBBCBB-------A-gAbb-B-c-:0:0:1:32:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O |
| O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| 7 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 104 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. XG Roller++ 18/16 5/2* eq:+0.556
Player: 78.15% (G:24.47% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 21.85% (G:6.03% B:0.15%)
2. XG Roller++ 15/13 5/2* eq:+0.536 (-0.020)
Player: 77.19% (G:24.29% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 22.81% (G:7.22% B:0.17%)
3. XG Roller++ 18/13 eq:+0.439 (-0.117)
Player: 72.26% (G:21.40% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 27.74% (G:5.60% B:0.13%)
4. 3-ply 18/16 15/12 eq:+0.408 (-0.148)
Player: 70.64% (G:19.92% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 29.36% (G:5.06% B:0.07%)
5. 2-ply 18/15 5/3 eq:+0.332 (-0.225)
Player: 66.87% (G:18.15% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 33.13% (G:5.15% B:0.11%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Hitting here is a must. Anything else is a whopper, and at a score where gammons mattered, a really big whopper.
XGID=--aBBCBB-------A-gAbb-B-c-:0:0:1:32:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O |
| O | | O O X O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| 7 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 104 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. XG Roller++ 18/16 5/2* eq:+0.556
Player: 78.15% (G:24.47% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 21.85% (G:6.03% B:0.15%)
2. XG Roller++ 15/13 5/2* eq:+0.536 (-0.020)
Player: 77.19% (G:24.29% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 22.81% (G:7.22% B:0.17%)
3. XG Roller++ 18/13 eq:+0.439 (-0.117)
Player: 72.26% (G:21.40% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 27.74% (G:5.60% B:0.13%)
4. 3-ply 18/16 15/12 eq:+0.408 (-0.148)
Player: 70.64% (G:19.92% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 29.36% (G:5.06% B:0.07%)
5. 2-ply 18/15 5/3 eq:+0.332 (-0.225)
Player: 66.87% (G:18.15% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 33.13% (G:5.15% B:0.11%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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