Poll
elmicho's board is seriously crunching with four checkers buried on the ace. That means we don't have to worry too much about being hit and can attend to the most important order of business which is making our two point and the full prime. If we can do that, the game should be iced.
So, 11/5 to give us 14 shakes that make the full prime. Then 19/18 to dupe aces.
11/5 19/8
Question: 
Option 1: 11/5 16/15
Option 2: 16/10
Option 3: 22/16
Option 4: 19/12
Option 5: 19/13 11/10
Option 6: 22/15
Option 7: 11/5 19/18
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 24 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 13, 2014, 12:15:21 AM
Post by: stog on January 13, 2014, 12:15:21 AM
elmicho rolled 6 1 so forced move made
we now also have 6 1
we now also have 6 1
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 24 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 13, 2014, 01:54:00 AM
Post by: ah_clem on January 13, 2014, 01:54:00 AM
Spoiler
elmicho's board is seriously crunching with four checkers buried on the ace. That means we don't have to worry too much about being hit and can attend to the most important order of business which is making our two point and the full prime. If we can do that, the game should be iced.
So, 11/5 to give us 14 shakes that make the full prime. Then 19/18 to dupe aces.
11/5 19/8
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 24 Herd to play
Post by: Julia_H on January 13, 2014, 09:46:08 AM
Post by: Julia_H on January 13, 2014, 09:46:08 AM
Spoiler
11/5 is obvious. Disagree about duplicating aces - note that some of White's 2's are going to be 8/6 (assuming he doesn't start force-feeding us blots) in which case letting him hit us gives us more return shots. With him anchored, three men back gives us that much more safety against being out-run when we open the prime - but not enough for him to get a tenable backgame going.
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 24 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 13, 2014, 09:06:14 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 13, 2014, 09:06:14 PM
rollout
XGR++ says that there's less than .02 equity among the top eight moves. A shaved monkey could avoid a blunder here. I'm not going to roll it out - knowing that it's very close is close enough for me here.
XGID=-bABBBBB---A----Af-Ab-Aad-:0:0:1:61:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | X O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 112 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 19/18 11/5 eq:+0.810
Player: 90.58% (G:32.23% B:2.05%)
Opponent: 9.42% (G:1.61% B:0.03%)
2. XG Roller++ 19/12 eq:+0.809 (-0.001)
Player: 90.52% (G:33.23% B:2.25%)
Opponent: 9.48% (G:1.64% B:0.04%)
3. XG Roller++ 19/18 16/10 eq:+0.808 (-0.002)
Player: 90.50% (G:33.35% B:2.22%)
Opponent: 9.50% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
4. XG Roller++ 19/13 11/10 eq:+0.808 (-0.002)
Player: 90.49% (G:32.71% B:2.14%)
Opponent: 9.51% (G:1.70% B:0.05%)
5. XG Roller++ 19/13 16/15 eq:+0.804 (-0.006)
Player: 90.27% (G:32.73% B:2.16%)
Opponent: 9.73% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
6. XG Roller++ 16/15 11/5 eq:+0.801 (-0.009)
Player: 90.13% (G:34.71% B:2.47%)
Opponent: 9.87% (G:1.85% B:0.04%)
7. XG Roller++ 22/16 11/10 eq:+0.792 (-0.018)
Player: 89.69% (G:26.72% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 10.31% (G:1.64% B:0.02%)
8. XG Roller++ 22/16 19/18 eq:+0.792 (-0.018)
Player: 89.68% (G:24.88% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 10.32% (G:1.63% B:0.02%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
XGR++ says that there's less than .02 equity among the top eight moves. A shaved monkey could avoid a blunder here. I'm not going to roll it out - knowing that it's very close is close enough for me here.
XGID=-bABBBBB---A----Af-Ab-Aad-:0:0:1:61:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | X O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X O |
| X X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 112 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 61
1. XG Roller++ 19/18 11/5 eq:+0.810
Player: 90.58% (G:32.23% B:2.05%)
Opponent: 9.42% (G:1.61% B:0.03%)
2. XG Roller++ 19/12 eq:+0.809 (-0.001)
Player: 90.52% (G:33.23% B:2.25%)
Opponent: 9.48% (G:1.64% B:0.04%)
3. XG Roller++ 19/18 16/10 eq:+0.808 (-0.002)
Player: 90.50% (G:33.35% B:2.22%)
Opponent: 9.50% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
4. XG Roller++ 19/13 11/10 eq:+0.808 (-0.002)
Player: 90.49% (G:32.71% B:2.14%)
Opponent: 9.51% (G:1.70% B:0.05%)
5. XG Roller++ 19/13 16/15 eq:+0.804 (-0.006)
Player: 90.27% (G:32.73% B:2.16%)
Opponent: 9.73% (G:1.71% B:0.04%)
6. XG Roller++ 16/15 11/5 eq:+0.801 (-0.009)
Player: 90.13% (G:34.71% B:2.47%)
Opponent: 9.87% (G:1.85% B:0.04%)
7. XG Roller++ 22/16 11/10 eq:+0.792 (-0.018)
Player: 89.69% (G:26.72% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 10.31% (G:1.64% B:0.02%)
8. XG Roller++ 22/16 19/18 eq:+0.792 (-0.018)
Player: 89.68% (G:24.88% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 10.32% (G:1.63% B:0.02%)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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