Poll
Probably miniscule equity difference, but 15/10 13/12 keeps us even-ended while the other plays don't. I try to stay even-ended unless there's a compelling reason to do otherwise.
Question: 
Option 1: 15/9
Option 2: 13/7
Option 3: 15/10 15/14
Option 4: 15/10 13/12
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 13, 2014, 11:46:17 PM
Post by: stog on January 13, 2014, 11:46:17 PM
elmicho danced with 33
we have 5 1
we have 5 1
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 02:26:59 AM
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 02:26:59 AM
Spoiler
Probably miniscule equity difference, but 15/10 13/12 keeps us even-ended while the other plays don't. I try to stay even-ended unless there's a compelling reason to do otherwise.
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play
Post by: Zorba on January 14, 2014, 04:13:33 AM
Post by: Zorba on January 14, 2014, 04:13:33 AM
Could you elaborate on what you mean by "even ended" here?
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play
Post by: Julia_H on January 14, 2014, 06:56:50 AM
Post by: Julia_H on January 14, 2014, 06:56:50 AM
Spoiler
If I understand correctly, the idea is if we need an even number of crossovers to bring our back men round, then 66 should play reasonably well - and if 66 does, almost everything else usually will. And as I remarked in the previous position, putting men on 12 and 10 means they will bear in to high positions with large numbers, setting us up for an easier start to the bearoff.
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Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play
Post by: Zorba on January 14, 2014, 12:20:21 PM
Post by: Zorba on January 14, 2014, 12:20:21 PM
Thanks, makes sense!
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 32 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 02:40:43 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 02:40:43 PM
rollout
If somebody wants to do enough trials to reach a statistically significant result, be my guest.
XGID=abBBBBBB-----A-B-e--b--ad-:0:0:1:51:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 129 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 15/9 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.77% (G:43.67% B:11.69%)
Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [24.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 15/14 15/10 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.77% (G:43.95% B:12.07%)
Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [21.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 15/10 13/12 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.77% (G:43.95% B:11.79%)
Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [20.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.76% (G:43.43% B:11.63%)
Opponent: 6.24% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [19.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 15/14 13/8 eq:+0.875 (-0.001)
Player: 93.75% (G:43.65% B:11.67%)
Opponent: 6.25% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [14.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
If somebody wants to do enough trials to reach a statistically significant result, be my guest.
XGID=abBBBBBB-----A-B-e--b--ad-:0:0:1:51:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X X O |
| X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 129 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 51
1. Rollout¹ 15/9 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.77% (G:43.67% B:11.69%)
Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [24.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 15/14 15/10 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.77% (G:43.95% B:12.07%)
Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [21.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 15/10 13/12 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.77% (G:43.95% B:11.79%)
Opponent: 6.23% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [20.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.875
Player: 93.76% (G:43.43% B:11.63%)
Opponent: 6.24% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [19.7%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 15/14 13/8 eq:+0.875 (-0.001)
Player: 93.75% (G:43.65% B:11.67%)
Opponent: 6.25% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.872..+0.878) - [14.4%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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