Poll
I'd take the opportunity to clear the 7 point. It leaves zero shots, and with spares on the 6 and 5 we probably won't be forced to leave a direct shot for several rolls.
66 will be an anti joker, but other than that it looks quite flexible.
Remember that we're not trying for a gammon, and his board is in such a state that we don't need to trap him so that his board crunches.
Question: 
Option 1: 11/6 10/8
Option 2: 10/5 11/9
Option 3: 7/2 7/5
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 36 Herd to play
Post by: stog on January 14, 2014, 05:31:12 PM
Post by: stog on January 14, 2014, 05:31:12 PM
elmicho danced with a 2 5
we also rolled a 2 5
pls add other options as required thx-- rushing outttt......
we also rolled a 2 5
pls add other options as required thx-- rushing outttt......
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 36 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 06:33:58 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 06:33:58 PM
Spoiler
I'd take the opportunity to clear the 7 point. It leaves zero shots, and with spares on the 6 and 5 we probably won't be forced to leave a direct shot for several rolls.
66 will be an anti joker, but other than that it looks quite flexible.
Remember that we're not trying for a gammon, and his board is in such a state that we don't need to trap him so that his board crunches.
[close]
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 36 Herd to play
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 11:43:18 PM
Post by: ah_clem on January 14, 2014, 11:43:18 PM
rollout
Clearing the bar point is a nice idea, but loses a small amount of equity.
XGID=abBBBBCB--AA-----e--b--ad-:0:0:1:52:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X O |
| X X X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 129 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/5 eq:+0.847
Player: 92.36% (G:51.74% B:17.03%)
Opponent: 7.64% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.844..+0.851) - [50.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/4 eq:+0.847
Player: 92.35% (G:51.53% B:17.43%)
Opponent: 7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.844..+0.850) - [49.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 10/5 7/5 eq:+0.842 (-0.005)
Player: 92.10% (G:52.61% B:17.62%)
Opponent: 7.90% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.838..+0.845) - [0.3%]
Duration: 47.5 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 11/6 7/5 eq:+0.841 (-0.006)
Player: 92.06% (G:52.77% B:18.14%)
Opponent: 7.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.838..+0.845) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq:+0.832 (-0.015)
Player: 91.59% (G:52.69% B:18.46%)
Opponent: 8.41% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.828..+0.835) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.0 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Clearing the bar point is a nice idea, but loses a small amount of equity.
XGID=abBBBBCB--AA-----e--b--ad-:0:0:1:52:4:0:1:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X X O |
| X X X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 81 O: 129 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 11/9 10/5 eq:+0.847
Player: 92.36% (G:51.74% B:17.03%)
Opponent: 7.64% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.844..+0.851) - [50.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 10/5 6/4 eq:+0.847
Player: 92.35% (G:51.53% B:17.43%)
Opponent: 7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.844..+0.850) - [49.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 10/5 7/5 eq:+0.842 (-0.005)
Player: 92.10% (G:52.61% B:17.62%)
Opponent: 7.90% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.838..+0.845) - [0.3%]
Duration: 47.5 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 11/6 7/5 eq:+0.841 (-0.006)
Player: 92.06% (G:52.77% B:18.14%)
Opponent: 7.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.838..+0.845) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/2 eq:+0.832 (-0.015)
Player: 91.59% (G:52.69% B:18.46%)
Opponent: 8.41% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.828..+0.835) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50.0 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 36 Herd to play
Post by: Zorba on January 15, 2014, 04:10:07 PM
Post by: Zorba on January 15, 2014, 04:10:07 PM
Spoiler
Small differences, but I'm guessing the reason that 7/5 7/2 is not the best play (I also thought it was), is the 7/2 part. It puts a spare on our deepest point when we might be able to avoid that altogether. This line of thought seems to be supported by the fact that several other 7/5 moves are among the top choices, even when they leave el_micho the 1-6 shot.
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