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congrats elmicho for taking the herd down in the second game (see link below for pic of final moves)

http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-17/fibsboard-forum-match-17-game-2-move-59-elmicho-to-move/msg37696/#msg37696 (http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-17/fibsboard-forum-match-17-game-2-move-59-elmicho-to-move/msg37696/#msg37696)

i've moved us both for the first few moves 31 and 61 respectively

now herd has 4 3

I double before next roll.
In a live-match I would consider the cube every roll and only double if I had marketlosers. That way I'd have 2 ways to win the game. Here I will just pop the cube - so the game isn't slowed down by all the cube'offerings.

Spoiler

Splitting is important to stop White using the men on 8 as builders or dropping men into the outer table. On the opening roll I'd split with the 3 and bring a 4 down; here I'll go the other way round because the resulting man on the ten point is unusually safe - 54 is blocked and 33 would blow us out of the water in any case.

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Spoiler

I voted for the reverse split since it's better in the opening, but I hear Julia's point about 54 being blocked making the blot on the 10 safer than usual. 

But 22 and 44 are blocked from hitting on the 9, leaving only 4 shots instead of the usual six.  I've never liked the 6,8,10 structure after 13/10 and we're more likely to be attacked on the 20 vs the 21, so I'm sticking with my vote.  The two plays are probably quite close.

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Quote from: elmicho on January 20, 2014, 09:09:22 AM
I double before next roll.
In a live-match I would consider the cube every roll and only double if I had marketlosers. That way I'd have 2 ways to win the game. Here I will just pop the cube - so the game isn't slowed down by all the cube'offerings.

Earlier, you asked for comments on your decisions, so I'll be happy to oblige.

Since our takepoint is just a wafer less than 50%, you've got market losers up the wazoo.  while the Herd is slightly favored at the moment, any good roll should  make you a slight favorite and we'll have a pass. Winning a single point doesn't do much for you here - you go from 30.6 to 31.7 MWC so getting a cash is not what you should be after.  Winning two points gets you to almost 50% MWC.

Your cube decision is sound - I don't need to roll it out to know it's solidly D/T.  After the herd accepts the cube I'll post a rollout, and I predict that holding will be a substantial error.

rollout

Spoiler

We are at quasi- gammon-save here.  Once elmicho turns the cube - and we should know that he will - his gammon value elevates to over one. (at "normal" scores it's about .5) Meanwhile, gammon wins do nothing for us.

So, the gammon-save plays of U (24/20 24/21) and Z (24/21 13/9) should have been on our radar.  See http://www.bgonline.org/1ats/43s.html (http://www.bgonline.org/1ats/43s.html)

Of course, it's not the opening roll anymore, so the rollouts for that are of limited utility, but these two plays come out on top.  U wins the most games, Z loses the fewest gammons.  Statistically speaking, it's a tossup.

The Herd's choice is a minor error of .017


XGID=-b---BD-B---dE---bbe----B-:0:0:1:43:4:1:0:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O  O |   | O              X |
| X           O  O |   | O              X |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
| X                |   | O                |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
| O                |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X    |   | X  X           O |
| O           X    |   | X  X           O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 163  O: 160 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 43

    1. Rollout¹    24/21 24/20                  eq:-0.799
      Player:   53.66% (G:16.72% B:2.65%)
      Opponent: 46.34% (G:12.50% B:0.98%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.810..-0.787) - [55.2%]
      Duration: 39 minutes 15 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    24/21 13/9                   eq:-0.800 (-0.001)
      Player:   53.33% (G:17.90% B:2.64%)
      Opponent: 46.67% (G:12.22% B:1.03%)
      Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.811..-0.789) - [44.4%]
      Duration: 46 minutes 06 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    24/20 13/10                  eq:-0.815 (-0.017)
      Player:   53.65% (G:18.91% B:3.41%)
      Opponent: 46.35% (G:13.02% B:1.32%)
      Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.827..-0.804) - [0.4%]
      Duration: 36 minutes 31 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    13/10 13/9                   eq:-0.884 (-0.085)
      Player:   52.09% (G:19.90% B:3.47%)
      Opponent: 47.91% (G:13.69% B:1.56%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.897..-0.871) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 28 minutes 26 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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