Poll
For money, splitting comes out ever so slightly ahead. But bringing down a builder (13/11 13/8) wins a bit more gammons while not winning quite as many games.
While the gammon price at 5a 5a is the same as for money, a good recipe for winning short matches is to get soem gammon chances and ship the cube. That makes me want to play the more aggressive opening.
13/11 13/8
We are nowhere near a cube after this move, so we don't give anything away with the rollout. Since we shook a 55 on move 2 and blitzed, this will be the last rollout for a while - at least until the cube action is moot.
rollout:
This is a book opening, so I didn't have to roll it out myself. As with money play, splitting very narrowly edges bringing two down, but the difference is so small that it's more a question of what style do you want to play as opposed to D being wrong.
Note that as with any aggressive opening, much of the value comes from the additional gammons and the herd will have to play precisely in order to convert those.
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:5:10
X:X O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 167 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 52
1. Book¹ 24/22 13/8 eq:+0.004
Player: 50.12% (G:13.88% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 49.88% (G:13.62% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.000..+0.008) - [99.7%]
2. Book¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:-0.004 (-0.009)
Player: 49.74% (G:15.08% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 50.26% (G:14.64% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.009..+0.000) - [0.3%]
3. Book² 13/8 6/4 eq:-0.049 (-0.054)
Player: 48.81% (G:13.91% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 51.19% (G:14.63% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.056..-0.042) - [0.0%]
4. Book³ 13/6 eq:-0.095 (-0.099)
Player: 47.53% (G:13.32% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 52.47% (G:14.73% B:0.66%)
5. 3-ply 13/11 8/3 eq:-0.141 (-0.145)
Player: 46.50% (G:13.12% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 53.50% (G:15.71% B:1.00%)
¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
²Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Question: Move 
Option 1: 13/8 13/11
votes: 6
Option 2: 13/8 24/22
votes: 0
Option 3: 13/8 6/4
votes: 0
Option 4: 13/6
votes: 0
Title: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 1
Post by: stog on December 18, 2013, 12:12:18 PM
Post by: stog on December 18, 2013, 12:12:18 PM
ok Game 1 Move 1 of this 5 point match (you have to Register to see diagrams and to to vote)
The Herd (Fibsboard members) to play opening 5 2..
your votes & comments please..
The Herd (Fibsboard members) to play opening 5 2..
your votes & comments please..
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 1
Post by: elmicho on December 18, 2013, 01:39:38 PM
Post by: elmicho on December 18, 2013, 01:39:38 PM
Well - here we go - if this is correct window for me to place a comment anyhow.
The suspence is amazing :o)
The suspence is amazing :o)
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 1
Post by: stog on December 18, 2013, 01:43:06 PM
Post by: stog on December 18, 2013, 01:43:06 PM
this is the herd's move but your time will come..
welcome to fibsboard!
you can vote for the Herd if you like ;)
perhaps not later on when we have a tied vote for a crucial move but we don't know who's voted so click a move above
welcome to fibsboard!
you can vote for the Herd if you like ;)
perhaps not later on when we have a tied vote for a crucial move but we don't know who's voted so click a move above
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 1
Post by: ah_clem on December 18, 2013, 07:13:42 PM
Post by: ah_clem on December 18, 2013, 07:13:42 PM
Spoiler
For money, splitting comes out ever so slightly ahead. But bringing down a builder (13/11 13/8) wins a bit more gammons while not winning quite as many games.
While the gammon price at 5a 5a is the same as for money, a good recipe for winning short matches is to get soem gammon chances and ship the cube. That makes me want to play the more aggressive opening.
13/11 13/8
[close]
Title: Re: Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 1
Post by: ah_clem on December 19, 2013, 04:36:00 PM
Post by: ah_clem on December 19, 2013, 04:36:00 PM
We are nowhere near a cube after this move, so we don't give anything away with the rollout. Since we shook a 55 on move 2 and blitzed, this will be the last rollout for a while - at least until the cube action is moot.
rollout:
Spoiler
This is a book opening, so I didn't have to roll it out myself. As with money play, splitting very narrowly edges bringing two down, but the difference is so small that it's more a question of what style do you want to play as opposed to D being wrong.
Note that as with any aggressive opening, much of the value comes from the additional gammons and the herd will have to play precisely in order to convert those.
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:5:10
X:X O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 167 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X to play 52
1. Book¹ 24/22 13/8 eq:+0.004
Player: 50.12% (G:13.88% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 49.88% (G:13.62% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.000..+0.008) - [99.7%]
2. Book¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:-0.004 (-0.009)
Player: 49.74% (G:15.08% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 50.26% (G:14.64% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.009..+0.000) - [0.3%]
3. Book² 13/8 6/4 eq:-0.049 (-0.054)
Player: 48.81% (G:13.91% B:0.73%)
Opponent: 51.19% (G:14.63% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.056..-0.042) - [0.0%]
4. Book³ 13/6 eq:-0.095 (-0.099)
Player: 47.53% (G:13.32% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 52.47% (G:14.73% B:0.66%)
5. 3-ply 13/11 8/3 eq:-0.141 (-0.145)
Player: 46.50% (G:13.12% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 53.50% (G:15.71% B:1.00%)
¹Generated by Miran Tuhtan on 11/24/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
²Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
³Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 5/21/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]