Poll
I would have played 13/3(2). The bar point is crying to be unstacked and the blot is not really a problem if hit - we're well ahead in the race and christopher's board is barren with a blot. In favor of 9/4 is that it means he can't hit with the spare on the anchor, we slot a valuable point, and
he has to abandon the rear anchor to hit. That's a fair amount of positives, but I think i still like unstacking better.
I'll plug it into XG and report the results.
Question: Herd to play 55? 
Option 1: 13/3 9/4 8/3
votes: 3
Option 2: 13/3(2)
votes: 2
Option 3: 13/8(3) 9/4
votes: 1
Option 4: 13/3 13/8 9/4
votes: 0
Option 5: 13/8(2) 6/1(2)
votes: 0
Title: FFM19 Game 1 Move 12: Herd to play 55
Post by: Julia_H on June 21, 2014, 08:36:47 AM
Post by: Julia_H on June 21, 2014, 08:36:47 AM
This one might prove to be obvious, but I thought I'd ask...
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 1 Move 12: Herd to play 55
Post by: ah_clem on June 23, 2014, 04:09:10 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 23, 2014, 04:09:10 PM
Spoiler
I would have played 13/3(2). The bar point is crying to be unstacked and the blot is not really a problem if hit - we're well ahead in the race and christopher's board is barren with a blot. In favor of 9/4 is that it means he can't hit with the spare on the anchor, we slot a valuable point, and
he has to abandon the rear anchor to hit. That's a fair amount of positives, but I think i still like unstacking better.
I'll plug it into XG and report the results.
[close]
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 1 Move 12: Herd to play 55
Post by: ah_clem on June 23, 2014, 07:21:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 23, 2014, 07:21:27 PM
rollout
XG four-ply analysis prefers 13/3(2) by the slimmest of margins, but in a full rollout the Herd's play comes out on top.
It's a close one: .016 emg and within the margin of error for a 1296 trial rollout.
XGID=--b--cE-CA--cF---aada-----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 13/3 9/4 8/3 eq:+0.327
Player: 55.53% (G:20.28% B:1.09%)
Opponent: 44.47% (G:8.84% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.312..+0.342) - [91.2%]
Duration: 28 minutes 43 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.311 (-0.016)
Player: 54.93% (G:20.27% B:1.34%)
Opponent: 45.07% (G:8.83% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.295..+0.327) - [8.5%]
Duration: 27 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/3 9/4 eq:+0.298 (-0.029)
Player: 55.44% (G:18.97% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 44.56% (G:9.41% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.283..+0.313) - [0.3%]
Duration: 24 minutes 01 second
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
XG four-ply analysis prefers 13/3(2) by the slimmest of margins, but in a full rollout the Herd's play comes out on top.
It's a close one: .016 emg and within the margin of error for a 1296 trial rollout.
XGID=--b--cE-CA--cF---aada-----:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ 13/3 9/4 8/3 eq:+0.327
Player: 55.53% (G:20.28% B:1.09%)
Opponent: 44.47% (G:8.84% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.312..+0.342) - [91.2%]
Duration: 28 minutes 43 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/3(2) eq:+0.311 (-0.016)
Player: 54.93% (G:20.27% B:1.34%)
Opponent: 45.07% (G:8.83% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.295..+0.327) - [8.5%]
Duration: 27 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/3 9/4 eq:+0.298 (-0.029)
Player: 55.44% (G:18.97% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 44.56% (G:9.41% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.283..+0.313) - [0.3%]
Duration: 24 minutes 01 second
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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