Poll
Question: Cube action? 
Option 1: Double
votes: 4
Option 2: No double
votes: 3
Title: FFM19 Game 1 Move 16: Herd cube action?
Post by: Julia_H on June 23, 2014, 07:01:45 AM
Post by: Julia_H on June 23, 2014, 07:01:45 AM
As the Herd have been very quiet so far, let's see if a cube decision will prompt something...
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 1 Move 16: Herd cube action?
Post by: ah_clem on June 23, 2014, 03:53:41 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 23, 2014, 03:53:41 PM
I've been away for the last week, and I didn't even realize we had started another match.
60 pips of timing is a bit shy for a good backgame, but close enough that I wouldn't whip it based on poor timing alone. The 52 backgame structure is one of the most resiliant, and in Trice's canonical example it's not even a double with three points to clear.
Here, we don't gain much by hitting the blot on the ten point, and if we don't cover the bar point blot COsbourne has a good chance to turn it around and try to win going forward. Looks like a hold to me, and with the deeper takepoint AtS and the scarcity of gammons in 52 backgames the take should be trivial.
ND
Addendum: What are the market losers? The only ones I'm seeing is big double for Chris to wreck his timing. I'm not seeing any rolls for us that significantly alter our chances.
Spoiler
60 pips of timing is a bit shy for a good backgame, but close enough that I wouldn't whip it based on poor timing alone. The 52 backgame structure is one of the most resiliant, and in Trice's canonical example it's not even a double with three points to clear.
Here, we don't gain much by hitting the blot on the ten point, and if we don't cover the bar point blot COsbourne has a good chance to turn it around and try to win going forward. Looks like a hold to me, and with the deeper takepoint AtS and the scarcity of gammons in 52 backgames the take should be trivial.
ND
Addendum: What are the market losers? The only ones I'm seeing is big double for Chris to wreck his timing. I'm not seeing any rolls for us that significantly alter our chances.
[close]
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 1 Move 16: Herd cube action?
Post by: Julia_H on June 23, 2014, 10:01:13 PM
Post by: Julia_H on June 23, 2014, 10:01:13 PM
The voting's finely poised... anyone want to make the case for doubling?