Poll
The estimated gammon losses from a double/take are a shade over 12%. What % would you reckon have been low enough for a take on this occasion?
Steve
Our live gammonless takepoint is 17.6%. We are 18.1% to win, so that leaves a margin of .5%.
The price of gammon on a 2-cube for us is .73, so I'd say we'd need to get the gammon rate down to about .7% to take.
The above calculations done with the help of XG Cube Information. I can't do this stuff in my head otb.
Question: Cube action? 
Option 1: pass
votes: 9
Option 2: take
votes: 1
Title: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: Julia_H on July 29, 2014, 08:22:04 PM
Post by: Julia_H on July 29, 2014, 08:22:04 PM
Another tie... this is democracy in action! Never mind, I think I know what's coming next. Unless the takers (are there any?) make themselves known reasonably quickly I'll move this one along.
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: ah_clem on July 30, 2014, 01:19:19 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 30, 2014, 01:19:19 PM
Spoiler
A poorly timed ace point game and a takepoint of 17% - maybe the AtS takepoint is low enough to take, but I'll let this one go. Pass.
[close]
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: NIHILIST on July 30, 2014, 03:48:54 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on July 30, 2014, 03:48:54 PM
If Stevie Wonder were our opponent it's still a pass.
Bob
Bob
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: ah_clem on July 30, 2014, 10:06:34 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 30, 2014, 10:06:34 PM
rollout
The live cube non-gammon adjusted take point is 17.6% and we have that. But the gammon losses push us way into pass territory. Chris is almost too good, but he's not there yet. Good cube.
Julia, can you post the .sgf file? I'll generate some match stats.
XGID=--BA-BBCC-a-b-a-b--cb-bbB-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 108 X-O: 2-0/5
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 81.51% (G:11.42% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.49% (G:1.61% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.91% (G:12.12% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.09% (G:2.00% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.710, Double=+1.441
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.970 (-0.030)
Double/Take: +1.377 (+0.377)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.968..+0.972)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.367..+1.387)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 58 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The live cube non-gammon adjusted take point is 17.6% and we have that. But the gammon losses push us way into pass territory. Chris is almost too good, but he's not there yet. Good cube.
Julia, can you post the .sgf file? I'll generate some match stats.
XGID=--BA-BBCC-a-b-a-b--cb-bbB-:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 108 X-O: 2-0/5
Cube: 1
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 81.51% (G:11.42% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.49% (G:1.61% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.91% (G:12.12% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.09% (G:2.00% B:0.17%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.710, Double=+1.441
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.970 (-0.030)
Double/Take: +1.377 (+0.377)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.968..+0.972)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.367..+1.387)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 58 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: stiefnu on July 31, 2014, 11:17:55 AM
Post by: stiefnu on July 31, 2014, 11:17:55 AM
QuoteThe live cube non-gammon adjusted take point is 17.6% and we have that. But the gammon losses push us way into pass territory.
The estimated gammon losses from a double/take are a shade over 12%. What % would you reckon have been low enough for a take on this occasion?
Steve
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: ah_clem on July 31, 2014, 02:36:17 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 31, 2014, 02:36:17 PM
Quote from: stiefnu on July 31, 2014, 11:17:55 AM
The estimated gammon losses from a double/take are a shade over 12%. What % would you reckon have been low enough for a take on this occasion?
Our live gammonless takepoint is 17.6%. We are 18.1% to win, so that leaves a margin of .5%.
The price of gammon on a 2-cube for us is .73, so I'd say we'd need to get the gammon rate down to about .7% to take.
The above calculations done with the help of XG Cube Information. I can't do this stuff in my head otb.
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 17: Herd cube action?
Post by: Julia_H on July 31, 2014, 11:15:00 PM
Post by: Julia_H on July 31, 2014, 11:15:00 PM
.sgf attached...