Poll
Enter and make the five point for sure. Then for the final ace I think it's best to split the runners. 8/7 is too loose and 6/5 does nothing for us. Splitting gets the runners moving and puts pressure on the blot on his five point.
bar/23 6/5(2)
Question: Herd to play 11 
Option 1: bar/23 6/5(2)
votes: 4
Option 2: bar/24 6/5(3)
votes: 0
Option 3: bar/23 8/7(2)
votes: 1
Option 4: bar/24 6/5(2) 8/7
votes: 2
Title: FFM19 Game 2 Move 4: Herd to play 11
Post by: Julia_H on July 18, 2014, 08:06:43 PM
Post by: Julia_H on July 18, 2014, 08:06:43 PM
As often with 11 there's plenty of legal moves. If you don't see your favourite here, do shout!
Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 4: Herd to play 11
Post by: ah_clem on July 19, 2014, 01:37:16 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 19, 2014, 01:37:16 PM
Spoiler
Enter and make the five point for sure. Then for the final ace I think it's best to split the runners. 8/7 is too loose and 6/5 does nothing for us. Splitting gets the runners moving and puts pressure on the blot on his five point.
bar/23 6/5(2)
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Title: Re: FFM19 Game 2 Move 4: Herd to play 11
Post by: ah_clem on July 20, 2014, 03:39:13 AM
Post by: ah_clem on July 20, 2014, 03:39:13 AM
rollout
XG likes slotting our bar point more than splitting. Not by a lot, but by enough.
XGID=-b----E-D---dDa--b-ca-b-AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) eq:-0.017
Player: 50.04% (G:15.31% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 49.96% (G:17.10% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.034..+0.000) - [99.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/5(2) eq:-0.044 (-0.027)
Player: 49.74% (G:14.44% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 50.26% (G:17.61% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.059..-0.029) - [0.8%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/5(3) eq:-0.108 (-0.091)
Player: 47.86% (G:14.10% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 52.14% (G:18.20% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.124..-0.092) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds
4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7(2) eq:-0.282 (-0.265)
Player: 44.11% (G:11.58% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 55.89% (G:19.52% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.298..-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
5. 2-ply Bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5 eq:-0.249 (-0.232)
Player: 44.36% (G:11.37% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 55.64% (G:19.14% B:1.54%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Spoiler
XG likes slotting our bar point more than splitting. Not by a lot, but by enough.
XGID=-b----E-D---dDa--b-ca-b-AA:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 8/7 6/5(2) eq:-0.017
Player: 50.04% (G:15.31% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 49.96% (G:17.10% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.034..+0.000) - [99.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 07 seconds
2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/5(2) eq:-0.044 (-0.027)
Player: 49.74% (G:14.44% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 50.26% (G:17.61% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.059..-0.029) - [0.8%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
3. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/5(3) eq:-0.108 (-0.091)
Player: 47.86% (G:14.10% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 52.14% (G:18.20% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.124..-0.092) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds
4. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7(2) eq:-0.282 (-0.265)
Player: 44.11% (G:11.58% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 55.89% (G:19.52% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.298..-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 01 second
5. 2-ply Bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5 eq:-0.249 (-0.232)
Player: 44.36% (G:11.37% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 55.64% (G:19.14% B:1.54%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
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