FIBS Board backgammon forum

A good roll for us.  We can make the 10 point.  We can make the bar point.  We can make the 4 point.  Or we can make the 3 point.  What to do?

While making points in our own board is worthy, it's better to make points in front of the anchor.  So let's dismiss making the three or the four point.

Making the 10 is nice - it extends the length of the blockade to 5, albeit with a blot in the middle.  And it leaves a blot on the 13 -  hmmmm.... not so good.

Making the bar point gives a solid four point blockade, and cleans up two blots in the process.  What's not to like?  14/7

BTW, if we were at gammon-save, I'd take a good look at 24/20 7/4.  But we're not, so let's not waste brain cells on that move.

Now I'll take a look at the vote and any other analysis and see if I change my mind.

looking nextish!

Making the bar point is a clear favorite. Next?



Analysis:
    1. Cubeful 2-ply    14/7                         Eq.:  -0.245
       0.451 0.064 0.001 - 0.549 0.115 0.002
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    8/4 7/4                      Eq.:  -0.376 ( -0.131)
       0.421 0.076 0.001 - 0.579 0.136 0.003
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    7/3 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.413 ( -0.169)
       0.413 0.075 0.001 - 0.587 0.142 0.004
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    14/10 13/10                  Eq.:  -0.451 ( -0.206)
       0.405 0.070 0.001 - 0.595 0.149 0.005
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    24/21 7/3                    Eq.:  -0.454 ( -0.209)
       0.411 0.068 0.001 - 0.589 0.172 0.004
     6. Cubeful 2-ply    24/20 7/4                    Eq.:  -0.471 ( -0.226)
       0.407 0.070 0.001 - 0.593 0.173 0.005
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Rollout:

    1. Rollout          14/7                         Eq.:  -0.322
       0.432 0.065 0.004 - 0.568 0.118 0.007 CL  -0.214 CF  -0.322
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]

    2. Rollout          7/3 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.416 ( -0.094)
       0.414 0.068 0.004 - 0.586 0.141 0.007 CL  -0.277 CF  -0.416
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
       
    3. Rollout          8/4 7/4                      Eq.:  -0.419 ( -0.097)
       0.416 0.076 0.005 - 0.584 0.139 0.007 CL  -0.268 CF  -0.419
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
       
    4. Rollout          24/21 7/3                    Eq.:  -0.448 ( -0.126)
       0.412 0.065 0.004 - 0.588 0.172 0.008 CL  -0.340 CF  -0.448
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.013]
       
    5. Rollout          14/10 13/10                  Eq.:  -0.489 ( -0.167)
       0.399 0.069 0.007 - 0.601 0.155 0.014 CL  -0.331 CF  -0.489
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.016]
       
    6. Rollout          24/20 7/4                    Eq.:  -0.508 ( -0.187)
       0.400 0.070 0.005 - 0.600 0.170 0.011 CL  -0.353 CF  -0.508
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 864325504 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]