Poll
Bob
Question: move 5-2
Option 1: 13/8, 8/6
votes: 1
Option 2: 15/13 ,13/8
votes: 0
Option 3: 20/15, 15-13
votes: 10
Option 4: 20/15, 13-11
votes: 0
Option 5: 20/18, 13/8
votes: 0
Option 6: 6/1, 6/4 
votes: 0
votes: 0
Title: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: diane on August 14, 2009, 03:34:27 PM
Post by: diane on August 14, 2009, 03:34:27 PM
Ok, here goes with the next move that Zorba had so kindly pre rolled for us - and you will all breathe a sigh of relief that it wasn't me rolling, I am sure ;)
Forum (blue) to move 5-2 [I think I caught all the possibilities there, including daft ones - let me know if something you want isn't there ;)]
LOdgBgPbMuAMAg:QQm1ACAAAAAA
Forum (blue) to move 5-2 [I think I caught all the possibilities there, including daft ones - let me know if something you want isn't there ;)]
LOdgBgPbMuAMAg:QQm1ACAAAAAA
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: NIHILIST on August 14, 2009, 05:06:15 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on August 14, 2009, 05:06:15 PM
Spoiler
Ray Charles would play this 20-13.
[close]
Bob
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: lewscannon on August 14, 2009, 06:45:04 PM
Post by: lewscannon on August 14, 2009, 06:45:04 PM
Spoiler
The 20-13 seems like an obvious choice, and ultimately gets my vote. Looking at it further, there might something to be said about the 13-6, in which we can gain some flexibility, hinder rkb's home development and maybe catch a shot at another blot, if rkb rolls something bad. The problem with that is if he rolls a 3-1, 2-1, 4-4, 1-1 type of roll and we find ourselves in a pickle. So playing it safe looks like the best choice.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: diane on August 14, 2009, 07:48:09 PM
Post by: diane on August 14, 2009, 07:48:09 PM
it is starting to look very nextish.......
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: KDP on August 14, 2009, 11:47:27 PM
Post by: KDP on August 14, 2009, 11:47:27 PM
Spoiler
20-13 for me
[close]
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: roadkillbooks on August 15, 2009, 11:31:18 PM
Post by: roadkillbooks on August 15, 2009, 11:31:18 PM
I can't see how the voting is going but is this ready or is there debate...I don't see any debate in the forum.
thx,
roadkillbooks
thx,
roadkillbooks
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: ah_clem on August 16, 2009, 02:19:14 AM
Post by: ah_clem on August 16, 2009, 02:19:14 AM
Spoiler
Run. Run like hell. Next?
[close]
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: diane on August 16, 2009, 08:38:26 AM
Post by: diane on August 16, 2009, 08:38:26 AM
ok, I can move on, now you have taken part ;) And buckle up - from here on in, I am rolling :laugh: :laugh:
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: diane on August 16, 2009, 10:24:30 PM
Post by: diane on August 16, 2009, 10:24:30 PM
Can someone who knows what they are doing set gnu on this move, my amateurish meddling seems to be coming up with a different move from the one Ray Charles would make. Lewscannon was the only one of us sniffing around what it seems to be suggesting is the better move.
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: diane on August 22, 2009, 12:07:36 AM
Post by: diane on August 22, 2009, 12:07:36 AM
Cooeee, ah_clem....this way with your gnu machine....
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: dorbel on August 22, 2009, 02:47:59 PM
Post by: dorbel on August 22, 2009, 02:47:59 PM
I rolled this one out with Snowie, which indicates that 20/13 is probably correct, but that 13/6 is a good alternate, basically swapping some wins for some extra gammons. Against a human it might even be right, because the play for White after 13/6 is usually more difficult than if Blue just runs. Well spotted Lews.
Title: Re: Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2
Post by: Zorba on August 24, 2009, 07:58:40 PM
Post by: Zorba on August 24, 2009, 07:58:40 PM
Yo, I'm back! B)
Catching up with the match, here's a GnuBG 2-ply rollout that I ran while on holiday:
Extremely close, with just a bit over 95% statistical significance that 13/6 is the better move.
1. Rollout 13/6 Eq.: +0,1036
53,51 14,92 0,21 - 46,49 13,65 1,91 CL +0,1786 CF +0,1036
[ 0,10 0,12 0,02 - 0,10 0,18 0,18 CL 0,0028 CF 0,0032]
2. Rollout 20/13 Eq.: +0,0953 ( -0,0083)
55,59 10,03 0,16 - 44,41 11,71 1,15 CL +0,1633 CF +0,0953
[ 0,10 0,11 0,02 - 0,10 0,17 0,13 CL 0,0027 CF 0,0030]
3. Rollout 20/15 13/11 Eq.: +0,0492 ( -0,0544)
52,35 12,91 0,25 - 47,65 13,99 1,78 CL +0,1217 CF +0,0492
[ 0,10 0,12 0,02 - 0,10 0,17 0,16 CL 0,0028 CF 0,0033]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866958214 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Catching up with the match, here's a GnuBG 2-ply rollout that I ran while on holiday:
Spoiler
Extremely close, with just a bit over 95% statistical significance that 13/6 is the better move.
1. Rollout 13/6 Eq.: +0,1036
53,51 14,92 0,21 - 46,49 13,65 1,91 CL +0,1786 CF +0,1036
[ 0,10 0,12 0,02 - 0,10 0,18 0,18 CL 0,0028 CF 0,0032]
2. Rollout 20/13 Eq.: +0,0953 ( -0,0083)
55,59 10,03 0,16 - 44,41 11,71 1,15 CL +0,1633 CF +0,0953
[ 0,10 0,11 0,02 - 0,10 0,17 0,13 CL 0,0027 CF 0,0030]
3. Rollout 20/15 13/11 Eq.: +0,0492 ( -0,0544)
52,35 12,91 0,25 - 47,65 13,99 1,78 CL +0,1217 CF +0,0492
[ 0,10 0,12 0,02 - 0,10 0,17 0,16 CL 0,0028 CF 0,0033]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866958214 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
[close]