Poll
I shall try to remember that ;) :laugh:
Now, I opened this page and it plonked me in Ah_Clems reply - all open to the world..so, I have tried not to let him influence me too much..
I have also tried to work wit the fact that the board image does not match the move posted, in that there is no cube offered, I assume that the rest of the position is correct?
It means I can't read a chart. http://www.simborgbackgammonlessons.com/recube-take-points-chart (http://www.simborgbackgammonlessons.com/recube-take-points-chart)
Our live takepoint is 24%, not 16%. And with all those gammons the pass now seems clear. Rollout in progress.
Question: take or drop
Option 1: take
votes: 5
Option 2: drop
votes: 11
Title: cube decision
Post by: stog on October 19, 2014, 12:05:22 AM
Post by: stog on October 19, 2014, 12:05:22 AM
roman hands our cube back..
do we want it though?
take or drop?
do we want it though?
take or drop?
Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2014, 02:26:40 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2014, 02:26:40 AM
Our live takepoint is 16% AtS. I'm certain we are more that 16% to win this one.
But Roman's gammon price is an elevated .75 and there are gammons afoot. Is that enough to pass? I say no, but I'm not sure. Losing a single game and getting to 5a3a is no big deal. Losing a gammon and the match is. Twelve in the zone, a man on the bar, and a blot to shoot at is daunting. But we have a nice board, he has only three points in his homeboard giving us 75% to enter, and a win gets us to 7aC. I'll take this one.
But Roman's gammon price is an elevated .75 and there are gammons afoot. Is that enough to pass? I say no, but I'm not sure. Losing a single game and getting to 5a3a is no big deal. Losing a gammon and the match is. Twelve in the zone, a man on the bar, and a blot to shoot at is daunting. But we have a nice board, he has only three points in his homeboard giving us 75% to enter, and a win gets us to 7aC. I'll take this one.
Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: dahlin on October 19, 2014, 10:47:42 AM
Post by: dahlin on October 19, 2014, 10:47:42 AM
Spoiler
Im a wellknown chicken - I pass this one, faster than a blitzstorm - I see gammon everywhere in this position, and if I didnt know roman is usually spot on with his cubeactions, I would have thought it to be too good...
From a 'I have no bot' to a herd full of 'I do' - Ill risc any reputation I might have, and say this is a big big
Pass :wub:
From a 'I have no bot' to a herd full of 'I do' - Ill risc any reputation I might have, and say this is a big big
Pass :wub:
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Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: diane on October 20, 2014, 02:43:42 AM
Post by: diane on October 20, 2014, 02:43:42 AM
Quote from: dahlin on October 19, 2014, 10:47:42 AMIm a wellknown chicken
I shall try to remember that ;) :laugh:
Now, I opened this page and it plonked me in Ah_Clems reply - all open to the world..so, I have tried not to let him influence me too much..
I have also tried to work wit the fact that the board image does not match the move posted, in that there is no cube offered, I assume that the rest of the position is correct?
Spoiler
If all that is right, and our board is just like that with a cube on the table, then I take. I'm not saying gammons are impossible, just unlikely. And I consider it more likely that we will come in and get a shot, with a lovely board down there...yup, gimme that!!
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Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: KDP on October 20, 2014, 01:09:52 PM
Post by: KDP on October 20, 2014, 01:09:52 PM
Spoiler
i would let this one go and live to fight another day. a couple of things which lead me to pass are: 1. the race 2. getting a second checker on the bar or worse closed out. i think his gammon chances are pretty decent and even though we have a strong board its not going to do us much good with 1 or 2 checkers on the bar.
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Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: dorbel on October 20, 2014, 04:36:15 PM
Post by: dorbel on October 20, 2014, 04:36:15 PM
Spoiler
An enormous pass. The point here is that roman's big race lead means that he doesn't have to blitz to win and in fact he won't be hitting loose. He can just play quietly and go for a plain win against a 20pt anchor if things go badly and a gammonish win by closeout if things go well, starting with one of the 10 numbers that make the 5pt on our head. Actually this might well be too good for this roll and a cube if we manage to anchor.
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Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: rif_raf on October 20, 2014, 09:59:13 PM
Post by: rif_raf on October 20, 2014, 09:59:13 PM
black is a take while is a drop
Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: vegasvic on October 20, 2014, 10:03:07 PM
Post by: vegasvic on October 20, 2014, 10:03:07 PM
Huge PASS only Cube Ho's and checker pushers would think of taking this . :thumbsup2:
Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: dorbel on October 21, 2014, 10:18:39 AM
Post by: dorbel on October 21, 2014, 10:18:39 AM
On a point of interest, could Clem tell us what this means?
QuoteOur live takepoint is 16% AtS. I'm certain we are more that 16% to win this one.
Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on October 21, 2014, 03:16:33 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 21, 2014, 03:16:33 PM
Quote from: dorbel on October 21, 2014, 10:18:39 AM
On a point of interest, could Clem tell us what this means?
It means I can't read a chart. http://www.simborgbackgammonlessons.com/recube-take-points-chart (http://www.simborgbackgammonlessons.com/recube-take-points-chart)
Our live takepoint is 24%, not 16%. And with all those gammons the pass now seems clear. Rollout in progress.
Title: Re: cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on October 21, 2014, 04:15:48 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 21, 2014, 04:15:48 PM
rollout
The first step in making a decision like this is evaluating the takepoint. Somehow, I really screwed up and thought it was 16% when it's more like 24% ( that's non-gammon-adjusted takepoint BTW) Add in the ~30% gammons and we'd need more like 37% to take and we are nowhere near that good.
As it is, the elevated gammon value for Roman with the cube at 2, and the depressed gammon value with the cube at 4 (8 points is 1 more than he needs so the gammon is worth less than normal) means that this one is too-good. But perhaps it's a practical double since some donkeys will take this one.
Score matters a lot; reverse the scores and it's a plain vanilla R/T. (see variant)
XGID=---BBBB-B-a-bC---cbcAb--bA:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.58% (G:29.31% B:0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.42% (G:3.12% B:0.15%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.82% (G:34.24% B:0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.18% (G:4.48% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.831, Double=+1.951
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.108
Redouble/Take: +1.888 (+0.780)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.108)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 12.2%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+1.103..+1.114)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.877..+1.899)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 42 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
///////////////variant - scores reversed //////////////////////////
XGID=---BBBB-B-a-bC---cbcAb--bA:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 77.24% (G:29.45% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.76% (G:2.86% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.839, Double=+1.307
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.950 (-0.033)
Redouble/Take: +0.983
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.017)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The first step in making a decision like this is evaluating the takepoint. Somehow, I really screwed up and thought it was 16% when it's more like 24% ( that's non-gammon-adjusted takepoint BTW) Add in the ~30% gammons and we'd need more like 37% to take and we are nowhere near that good.
As it is, the elevated gammon value for Roman with the cube at 2, and the depressed gammon value with the cube at 4 (8 points is 1 more than he needs so the gammon is worth less than normal) means that this one is too-good. But perhaps it's a practical double since some donkeys will take this one.
Score matters a lot; reverse the scores and it's a plain vanilla R/T. (see variant)
XGID=---BBBB-B-a-bC---cbcAb--bA:1:-1:-1:00:2:0:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.58% (G:29.31% B:0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.42% (G:3.12% B:0.15%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.82% (G:34.24% B:0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.18% (G:4.48% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.831, Double=+1.951
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.108
Redouble/Take: +1.888 (+0.780)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.108)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 12.2%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+1.103..+1.114)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.877..+1.899)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 42 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
///////////////variant - scores reversed //////////////////////////
XGID=---BBBB-B-a-bC---cbcAb--bA:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X O O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 107 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 77.24% (G:29.45% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.76% (G:2.86% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.839, Double=+1.307
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.950 (-0.033)
Redouble/Take: +0.983
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.017)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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