Poll
It's a blitz and the priorities are point > hit > build > escape in that order. We can't point, so we hit. 8/3*
Then it's a question of what to do with the deuce. Cleaning up with 8/6 is anti positional since that effectivly leaves with only one direct cover. 13/11 unstacks, makes a point and brings an 11th checker into the zone, but gives us only two covers. 11/9 gives us three covers.
Is four blots too many? Maybe, but when he shakes one of the 20 non-hitting numbers we are in great shape.
11/9 8/3*
Question: herd52
Option 1: 11/9 /8/3*
Option 2: 24/22 8/3*
Option 3: 24/22 13/8
Option 4: 13/11 8/3*
Option 5: 24/22 8/3*
Title: fibsboard match 20 Game 2 Herd MOVE 6
Post by: stog on October 13, 2014, 11:22:37 AM
Post by: stog on October 13, 2014, 11:22:37 AM
herd 52
Title: Re: fibsboard match 20 Game 2 Herd MOVE 6
Post by: ah_clem on October 13, 2014, 04:22:38 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 13, 2014, 04:22:38 PM
Spoiler
It's a blitz and the priorities are point > hit > build > escape in that order. We can't point, so we hit. 8/3*
Then it's a question of what to do with the deuce. Cleaning up with 8/6 is anti positional since that effectivly leaves with only one direct cover. 13/11 unstacks, makes a point and brings an 11th checker into the zone, but gives us only two covers. 11/9 gives us three covers.
Is four blots too many? Maybe, but when he shakes one of the 20 non-hitting numbers we are in great shape.
11/9 8/3*
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Title: Re: fibsboard match 20 Game 2 Herd MOVE 6
Post by: dahlin on October 13, 2014, 06:28:05 PM
Post by: dahlin on October 13, 2014, 06:28:05 PM
Wonder if this spoilerthingie works ;)
Spoiler
I would agree with ah_clem if the cube was centered, and we had that as extra weapon.
But since we have already doubled, I like 'playing a little on both horses' and therefore I make the pretty play 13/11, 8/3*
- Don't think there can be much difference between those 2 moves - and as I see no other moves as serious candidates, its probably a matter of style from here.
But since we have already doubled, I like 'playing a little on both horses' and therefore I make the pretty play 13/11, 8/3*
- Don't think there can be much difference between those 2 moves - and as I see no other moves as serious candidates, its probably a matter of style from here.
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Title: Re: fibsboard match 20 Game 2 Herd MOVE 6
Post by: willywonka on October 14, 2014, 03:13:09 AM
Post by: willywonka on October 14, 2014, 03:13:09 AM
Spoiler
24/22 8/3* is a move worthy of serious consideration. If Roman flunks or otherwise cannot cover the blot on the 16-point, a roll of 6 by us next turn sends back another checker. That being said, I think 13/11 8/3* is best.
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Title: Re: fibsboard match 20 Game 2 Herd MOVE 6
Post by: ah_clem on October 14, 2014, 02:15:51 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 14, 2014, 02:15:51 PM
rollout
The Herd's play comes out on top. The other two vote-receiving plays are not very far behind.
XGID=---aBBC-B--AcD--acbe----A-:1:-1:1:52:2:0:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 138 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/3* eq:+0.048
Player: 58.59% (G:24.63% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 41.41% (G:9.81% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.037..+0.058) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 16 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/3* eq:+0.021 (-0.027)
Player: 57.90% (G:24.36% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 42.10% (G:11.00% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.011..+0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/3* eq:+0.020 (-0.028)
Player: 57.76% (G:23.96% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 42.24% (G:10.15% B:1.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.010..+0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
4. 4-ply 24/22 13/8 eq:-0.011 (-0.059)
Player: 57.46% (G:16.58% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 42.54% (G:8.13% B:0.29%)
5. 3-ply 8/6 8/3* eq:-0.021 (-0.068)
Player: 56.24% (G:22.07% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 43.76% (G:9.45% B:0.44%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
The Herd's play comes out on top. The other two vote-receiving plays are not very far behind.
XGID=---aBBC-B--AcD--acbe----A-:1:-1:1:52:2:0:0:7:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X | +---+
| X O O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 139 O: 138 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52
1. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/3* eq:+0.048
Player: 58.59% (G:24.63% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 41.41% (G:9.81% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.037..+0.058) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 16 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/3* eq:+0.021 (-0.027)
Player: 57.90% (G:24.36% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 42.10% (G:11.00% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.011..+0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 11/9 8/3* eq:+0.020 (-0.028)
Player: 57.76% (G:23.96% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 42.24% (G:10.15% B:1.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.010..+0.029) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
4. 4-ply 24/22 13/8 eq:-0.011 (-0.059)
Player: 57.46% (G:16.58% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 42.54% (G:8.13% B:0.29%)
5. 3-ply 8/6 8/3* eq:-0.021 (-0.068)
Player: 56.24% (G:22.07% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 43.76% (G:9.45% B:0.44%)
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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