FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM4 => Topic started by: ah_clem on January 04, 2010, 06:13:26 PM
We rolled a 6-1 and played the only legal move.
Now it's another cube decision for the box.
Double.
rollout
Spoiler
I thought this was a hard decision for blitzy, but gnubg doesn't think it's close. Presumably there are enough market losers to trigger the double here.
I also thought it was a clear take, when it's actually quite close - the take decision is within the margin of error.
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.603 (Money: +0.576)
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.992
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.008)
3. No double +0.820 ( -0.172)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.665 0.281 0.026 - 0.335 0.057 0.003 CL +0.603 CF +0.820
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.012]
Player Forum owns 2-cube:
0.665 0.281 0.028 - 0.335 0.057 0.006 CL +1.329 CF +0.992
[0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.001 0.001 CL 0.017 CF 0.022]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840185179 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
The rollout refers to the previous cube decision, I think. And it turned out to be huge blunder for me not to double. It's a surprise to me that I would get that much gammons. However, if you change the match equity table to jacobs-100-points-fish-table then it's borderline. So I was thinking here I must be over 100 point better then forum... :D LOL.