FIBS Board backgammon forum

Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM4 => Topic started by: ah_clem on January 04, 2010, 08:11:36 PM

Poll
Question: Do we take this cube, or do we pass?
Option 1: Take votes: 0
Option 2: No Thanks votes: 6
Title: Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?
Post by: ah_clem on January 04, 2010, 08:11:36 PM
The good news is that we finally get to make a decision.  The bad news is that it's this one. 

Blitzxz has graciously offered us a cube.
Wadaya say?  Take or pass?
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?
Post by: ah_clem on January 04, 2010, 08:16:48 PM
Spoiler


Blitzxz has the following assets: an advanced anchor, his bar point and two slotted points in his homeboard. He's on roll with a 50 pip lead.  

We have the following assets:  a whole lot of nothing and two checkers on the bar.  

Unless we can make a second anchor, we're going to be stuck with an ace point game. I say pass.

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Title: Re: Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?
Post by: roadkillbooks on January 05, 2010, 04:16:53 AM
Spoiler
this is a pass from here to siberia and back
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Title: Re: Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?
Post by: NIHILIST on January 05, 2010, 04:19:22 AM
Spoiler
Run a credit check on anyone who takes this.
[close]

Bob
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?
Post by: ah_clem on January 05, 2010, 04:36:15 AM
Sounds like the judges have reached a verdict.  We'll put the patient out of it's misery.
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 5 Forum Take?
Post by: ah_clem on January 05, 2010, 01:44:05 PM
rollout

Spoiler



This was a huge pass.  A qunitple whopper to take this sucker.

This rollout has it too good to double, but within the margin of error.  Good cube handling on both sides here.






Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.801 (Money:  +0.784)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +1.009
2. Double, take         +1.494  ( +0.485)
3. Double, pass         +1.000  ( -0.009)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (1.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.714 0.349 0.045 - 0.286 0.036 0.002 CL  +0.801 CF  +1.009
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]
Player Forum owns 2-cube:
  0.719 0.340 0.048 - 0.281 0.035 0.004 CL  +1.779 CF  +1.494
[0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.001 0.001 CL   0.018 CF   0.024]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840185179 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


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