Quote from: stog on January 23, 2010, 12:57:10 PM
i don't think we can hit here - i like 13/10 and 7/5 6/5 more! let's get a board first, then get him
Definitely no hit on 18 as white can hit back loose on its 5 point with impunity due to black's non-existing homeboard.
Cubewise, the match score of 4-a 4-a is extremely aggressive, so what move can one make here to keep white from doubling next turn? (esp. considering that the opp's name starts with "blitz")
If white closes his barpoint, and there is a good chance it will, then black's anchor on 24 becomes a big liablity, even if black manages to hit another of white's checkers. The resulting holding game feels uncomfortable enough to me to pass if black cubes.
Making its 5-point with 7-5 6-5 would commit black to a 51 backgame of sorts, which is pretty weak and could probably be dbl/passed as well.
So I think I'd go for 6-4 4-3, hoping that white will not double from the bar.
Tough call indeed, wouldn't be surprised if my analysis turned out to be unworthy of a Sherlok Holmes.