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13/8 6/5, i don't want to be struggling again, against an early blitz,so early on, our opponent is called blitzxz btw!, lets try and make things happen with slotting the 5 point......
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With 2-1 and 4-1 I would slot the 5-point, but with 5-1 I won't because of the lack of enough builders to make the point EVEN if I'm not hit, as 13/8 doesn't provide me another builder. So 13/8-24/23.
PS: In FF, the tiny pic in stog's post linking to donation page looks like a dust. My monitor is very lucky that I didn't set it ablaze after trying to remove the goddamn 'dust' 5 times before realizing that it's a freaking link!
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13/8, 6/5 is at least as good as 24/23, 13/8 and is thought to lead to more gammonish games with earlier cube opportunities. As we are trailing this should be our preferred play, but the difference isn't very great.
With the vote at 7-1 I was about to call this one, but with the second vote for the alternate play I'll let the polling period run the full 24 hours. You've got a couple more hours to re-think your vote.
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Slotting the 5 is an aggressive play that leads to more gammons, but also loses more games. At gammon-go it's a viable play, but at this match score I don't think it wins enough additional gammons to make it worth the risk. So I'm sticking with the prosaic split.
No cube decisions in sight, so here's a rollout
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Splitting is correct here. Anything else is borderline doubtful.
Surprisingly, the more aggressive move doesn't change the gammon rate for either player; it just loses more games.
1. Rollout 24/23 13/8 Eq.: -0.011
0.504 0.132 0.006 - 0.496 0.137 0.009 CL -0.003 CF -0.011
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
2. Rollout 13/8 6/5 Eq.: -0.069 ( -0.058)
0.491 0.132 0.006 - 0.509 0.138 0.016 CL -0.027 CF -0.069
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.017]
3. Rollout 24/18 Eq.: -0.079 ( -0.067)
0.494 0.116 0.006 - 0.506 0.137 0.007 CL -0.047 CF -0.079
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.015]
4. Rollout 13/7 Eq.: -0.135 ( -0.124)
0.477 0.129 0.008 - 0.523 0.143 0.017 CL -0.070 CF -0.135
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.016]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840185179 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Quote from: PersianLord on January 05, 2010, 03:52:56 PMPS: In FF, the tiny pic in stog's post linking to donation page looks like a dust. My monitor is very lucky that I didn't set it ablaze after trying to remove the goddamn 'dust' 5 times before realizing that it's a freaking link!
This intrigued me so much I went looking for the mysterious 'dust' that is a donation link. I couldn't see anything that fit the description, until I spotted a tiny thing at the bottom of stog's post, slightly off centre. I spent ages hovering over it, and clicking it - until I realised it wasnt a link at all, but was dust on my monitor and cleaned it..... :laugh: :laugh:
[This is true btw - and it is the work PC, before anyone thinks I don't clean my home screens ;) ]