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FIBS Board backgammon forum

Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM4 => Topic started by: ah_clem on January 07, 2010, 01:20:33 PM

Poll
Question: Double or take?
Option 1: Push the cube votes: 1
Option 2: Sit on it votes: 5
Title: Game 2 Move 2 Forum Double?
Post by: ah_clem on January 07, 2010, 01:20:33 PM
Blitzxz danced with a 6-6.  We have a cube decision to make.
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 2 Forum Double?
Post by: ah_clem on January 15, 2010, 06:31:54 PM
rollout

Spoiler

Rollout shows it's a tossup.  Equity change is within the margin of error.   




Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.407 (Money:  +0.358)

Cubeful equities:
1. No double            +0.569
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.431)
3. Double, take         +0.564  ( -0.005)
Proper cube action: No double, take (1.3%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.614 0.224 0.013 - 0.386 0.097 0.010 CL  +0.407 CF  +0.569
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.016]
Player blitzxz owns 2-cube:
  0.617 0.225 0.012 - 0.383 0.104 0.016 CL  +0.874 CF  +0.564
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL   0.016 CF   0.020]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845650837 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


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