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Hit the blot, slot the golden point.  The only other real option I see is hitting and bringing down another builder with 13/9.  I might think about that if we were desperate to get a gammon, but at even-steven, the slot seems much better.

yep that was my first choice too but i switched to slotting the 4  to help the vote along, now i shall switch back, and really put the mockers on it !!

My choice was to slot the 20, done almost on autopilot - but of course, 13/9 is much better as it brings more ammo to the combat zone, without increasing any risk.  I will change it now - and chalk it to a classic, 'I should have thought for a moment', moment  ;)

QuoteI like 13/9, 8/7, bringing another checker into the zone.

Ok, I am persuaded to change my vote.

It doesn't get much closer than this.  Hitting on the bar point is  mandatory, but the 4 can be played either by slotting the golden point or bringing down another builder.  The slotting play comes out slightly ahead overall, but not within the margin of error.  Both plays win the same percentage of games - the attacking play wins more gammons but loses more gammons too.

So this one is a choice of what kind of game we want to play - a direct attack, or a more positional game.  We've decided to go an the attack. 



    1. Rollout          24/20 8/7*                   Eq.:  +0.008
       0.495 0.135 0.011 - 0.505 0.118 0.010 CL  +0.016 CF  +0.008
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
       
    2. Rollout          13/9 8/7*                    Eq.:  +0.005 ( -0.003)
       0.496 0.150 0.013 - 0.504 0.142 0.014 CL  +0.012 CF  +0.005
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.019]
       
    3. Rollout          8/7*/3                       Eq.:  -0.155 ( -0.163)
       0.469 0.132 0.011 - 0.531 0.146 0.016 CL  -0.086 CF  -0.155
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL   0.008 CF   0.026]
       
    4. Rollout          6/1*                         Eq.:  -0.164 ( -0.172)
       0.459 0.132 0.008 - 0.541 0.136 0.009 CL  -0.091 CF  -0.164
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
       
    5. Rollout          24/20 23/22                  Eq.:  -0.215 ( -0.223)
       0.456 0.111 0.008 - 0.544 0.133 0.011 CL  -0.137 CF  -0.215
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]
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