Poll
We want to take checkers off (to increase winning chances after getting hit and to win more gammons) and we want to clear points from the back, for safety purposes. This naturally leads to the move 6/3 2/off, stripping the sixpoint so we are ready to clear it with a good roll, and taking a checker off.
Compared to 5/off, this is much safer as we like to have spare fives to play, while waiting to clear the sixpoint, as fives don't play from the sixpoint.
Question: Move?
Option 1: 6/3, 2/off
votes: 7
Option 2: 5/off
votes: 1
Option 3: 6/3, 4/2
votes: 0
Option 4: 6/3, 5/3
votes: 1
Title: Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2
Post by: diane on August 09, 2010, 12:08:26 PM
Post by: diane on August 09, 2010, 12:08:26 PM
d9sCADBu7w4AAA:QQmtAAAAAAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-6/game-1-move-16-herd-to-move-3-2/?action=dlattach;attach=4896;image)
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-6/game-1-move-16-herd-to-move-3-2/?action=dlattach;attach=4896;image)
Title: Re: Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2
Post by: PersianLord on August 09, 2010, 02:41:36 PM
Post by: PersianLord on August 09, 2010, 02:41:36 PM
Spoiler
I don't see any value in 6-3/5-3. If we roll a 6-5 next turn, we will be exposed to a double shot; not a desirable position to be in. I voted 5-off, as I tend to clear my 5-pt in such situations.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on August 09, 2010, 08:05:47 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 09, 2010, 08:05:47 PM
foo
Title: Re: Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on August 09, 2010, 08:07:19 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 09, 2010, 08:07:19 PM
Quote from: ah_clem on August 09, 2010, 08:05:47 PMDont strip both 5 & 6 points. Clear from the rear. 6/3 2/off. Trice's wave.
foo
Title: Re: Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2
Post by: Zorba on August 09, 2010, 08:24:57 PM
Post by: Zorba on August 09, 2010, 08:24:57 PM
Spoiler
We want to take checkers off (to increase winning chances after getting hit and to win more gammons) and we want to clear points from the back, for safety purposes. This naturally leads to the move 6/3 2/off, stripping the sixpoint so we are ready to clear it with a good roll, and taking a checker off.
Compared to 5/off, this is much safer as we like to have spare fives to play, while waiting to clear the sixpoint, as fives don't play from the sixpoint.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 16: Herd to move 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 04:39:11 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 04:39:11 PM
rollout
Not much to add that hasn't been said before. Zorba nailed it.
1. Rollout 6/3 2/off Eq.: +1.077
0.949 0.145 0.005 - 0.051 0.000 0.000 CL +1.101 CF +1.077
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
2. Rollout 6/3 4/2 Eq.: +1.016 ( -0.061)
0.941 0.117 0.003 - 0.059 0.000 0.000 CL +1.044 CF +1.016
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
3. Rollout 5/off Eq.: +1.010 ( -0.067)
0.927 0.138 0.005 - 0.073 0.000 0.000 CL +1.047 CF +1.010
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
4. Rollout 6/3 5/3 Eq.: +0.966 ( -0.111)
0.926 0.107 0.003 - 0.074 0.000 0.000 CL +1.002 CF +0.966
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
Not much to add that hasn't been said before. Zorba nailed it.
1. Rollout 6/3 2/off Eq.: +1.077
0.949 0.145 0.005 - 0.051 0.000 0.000 CL +1.101 CF +1.077
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
2. Rollout 6/3 4/2 Eq.: +1.016 ( -0.061)
0.941 0.117 0.003 - 0.059 0.000 0.000 CL +1.044 CF +1.016
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
3. Rollout 5/off Eq.: +1.010 ( -0.067)
0.927 0.138 0.005 - 0.073 0.000 0.000 CL +1.047 CF +1.010
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
4. Rollout 6/3 5/3 Eq.: +0.966 ( -0.111)
0.926 0.107 0.003 - 0.074 0.000 0.000 CL +1.002 CF +0.966
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.003]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]