Poll
Question: Move?
Option 1: 6/1* (2), 8/3 (2)
votes: 7
Option 2: 13/3 (2)
votes: 1
Option 3: 13/8 (2), 6/1* (2)
votes: 0
Option 4: 13/8 (4)
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 1: Herd to move 5-5
Post by: diane on August 12, 2010, 10:03:26 AM
Post by: diane on August 12, 2010, 10:03:26 AM
4NvgASiwZ/ADIA:cIm2AAAAEAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-6/game-2-move-1-herd-to-move-5-5/?action=dlattach;attach=4911;image)
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-6/game-2-move-1-herd-to-move-5-5/?action=dlattach;attach=4911;image)
Title: Re: Game 2, move 1: Herd to move 5-5
Post by: PersianLord on August 12, 2010, 01:42:17 PM
Post by: PersianLord on August 12, 2010, 01:42:17 PM
Spoiler
6-1*(2) / 8-3(2). I really don't see any other choice.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 1: Herd to move 5-5
Post by: ah_clem on August 12, 2010, 01:58:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 12, 2010, 01:58:27 PM
Quote from: PersianLord on August 12, 2010, 01:42:17 PMyup.Spoiler
6-1*(2) / 8-3(2). I really don't see any other choice.[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 1: Herd to move 5-5
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 04:23:42 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 04:23:42 PM
rolllout
Well, it seemed like a good idea. Point on his head and make two homeboard points - what's not to like?
What's not to like is the premature burial, the obliteration of the 8 point, and leaving a big old stack on the midpoint. Add 'em up and the Herd's play is a .17 whopper. It's better to just make the three point and build a prime in front of the two checkers - remember the aphorism: attack a single checker, block if there's two or more. With 20-20 hindsight the blocking play is superior to the attacking/blitzing play.
Now, if we had more checkers in the zone, the attacking play would probably be right.
1. Rollout 13/3(2) Eq.: +0.683
0.658 0.235 0.033 - 0.342 0.070 0.003 CL +0.424 CF +0.683
[0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
2. Rollout 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) Eq.: +0.538 ( -0.144)
0.626 0.226 0.015 - 0.374 0.080 0.005 CL +0.340 CF +0.538
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.016]
3. Rollout 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) Eq.: +0.513 ( -0.169)
0.616 0.269 0.016 - 0.384 0.085 0.005 CL +0.331 CF +0.513
[0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.015]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
Well, it seemed like a good idea. Point on his head and make two homeboard points - what's not to like?
What's not to like is the premature burial, the obliteration of the 8 point, and leaving a big old stack on the midpoint. Add 'em up and the Herd's play is a .17 whopper. It's better to just make the three point and build a prime in front of the two checkers - remember the aphorism: attack a single checker, block if there's two or more. With 20-20 hindsight the blocking play is superior to the attacking/blitzing play.
Now, if we had more checkers in the zone, the attacking play would probably be right.
1. Rollout 13/3(2) Eq.: +0.683
0.658 0.235 0.033 - 0.342 0.070 0.003 CL +0.424 CF +0.683
[0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
2. Rollout 13/8(2) 6/1*(2) Eq.: +0.538 ( -0.144)
0.626 0.226 0.015 - 0.374 0.080 0.005 CL +0.340 CF +0.538
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.016]
3. Rollout 8/3(2) 6/1*(2) Eq.: +0.513 ( -0.169)
0.616 0.269 0.016 - 0.384 0.085 0.005 CL +0.331 CF +0.513
[0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.007 CF 0.015]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]