Poll
Question: Move?
Option 1: 13/10, 13/11
votes: 0
Option 2: 24/21, 13/11
votes: 6
Option 3: 24/22, 13/10
votes: 1
Option 4: 13/8
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: diane on August 14, 2010, 12:26:29 PM
Post by: diane on August 14, 2010, 12:26:29 PM
4NvBARgzG/ADIA:cImpAAAAEAAA
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: PersianLord on August 14, 2010, 12:53:43 PM
Post by: PersianLord on August 14, 2010, 12:53:43 PM
Spoiler
24/22-13/10. Move the straggler 2 points and bring a man from the 13-pt. 24/21-13/11 looks good as well, but in case of a 2-2 for White, we'll be in a bad position.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: stiefnu on August 14, 2010, 03:44:07 PM
Post by: stiefnu on August 14, 2010, 03:44:07 PM
Spoiler
Quote24/22-13/10. Move the straggler 2 points and bring a man from the 13-pt. 24/21-13/11 looks good as well, but in case of a 2-2 for White, we'll be in a bad position.On the other hand, after 24/21-13/11, 5-5 for White wouldn't play so well and our straggler would be in a better position to run out with both 5s as well as 6s. I don't think there can be much to choose between them?
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: stiefnu on August 14, 2010, 03:47:02 PM
Post by: stiefnu on August 14, 2010, 03:47:02 PM
Spoiler
I should've said, after 24/22-13/10, 5-5 for White wouldn't play so well...
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: PersianLord on August 14, 2010, 05:08:17 PM
Post by: PersianLord on August 14, 2010, 05:08:17 PM
Quote from: stiefnu on August 14, 2010, 03:44:07 PMSpoiler
On the other hand, after 24/21-13/11, 5-5 for White wouldn't play so well and our straggler would be in a better position to run out with both 5s as well as 6s. I don't think there can be much to choose between them?[close]
Spoiler
Why? He would make an anchor at our bar pt with 2 of his 5s, whether he's able to make a point on our head or not. The point is that with 2-2, he can both make an anchor at our 4-pt AND make a valuable point at his own board, but with 5-5, he will have to make a point deep in his board.
Regards
Regards
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: stiefnu on August 15, 2010, 12:42:33 AM
Post by: stiefnu on August 15, 2010, 12:42:33 AM
Spoiler
QuoteThe point is that with 2-2, he can both make an anchor at our 4-pt AND make a valuable point at his own board, but with 5-5, he will have to make a point deep in his board.True. But how about the extra escaping chances we get with 5s as well as 6s? Anyway, looking forward to the rollout.
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Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: diane on August 15, 2010, 01:38:16 AM
Post by: diane on August 15, 2010, 01:38:16 AM
This seems pretty clear cut..so i think we can move along- and roll it out ;)
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 05:04:00 AM
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 05:04:00 AM
Don't muck with the four point board.
Don't give him a direct shot in our outfield.
Get the runner moving.
That leaves two possibilities: 24/21, 13/11 and 24/22, 13/10. The former gives more escaping numbers without having any discernable downsides. Seems pretty easy, unless I'm missing something.
Don't give him a direct shot in our outfield.
Get the runner moving.
That leaves two possibilities: 24/21, 13/11 and 24/22, 13/10. The former gives more escaping numbers without having any discernable downsides. Seems pretty easy, unless I'm missing something.
Title: Re: Game 2, move 3: Herd 3-2
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 01:29:02 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 15, 2010, 01:29:02 PM
rollout
I guess I'm missing something. The alternative play 24/22 13/10 comes out a bit better. I have no idea why. Anyone care to hazard a post-hoc reason?
1. Rollout 24/22 13/10 Eq.: +0.299
0.577 0.156 0.012 - 0.423 0.099 0.003 CL +0.181 CF +0.299
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
2. Rollout 24/21 13/11 Eq.: +0.274 ( -0.024)
0.574 0.157 0.014 - 0.426 0.101 0.004 CL +0.170 CF +0.274
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
3. Rollout 13/11 13/10 Eq.: +0.255 ( -0.044)
0.563 0.178 0.011 - 0.437 0.100 0.004 CL +0.179 CF +0.255
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
I guess I'm missing something. The alternative play 24/22 13/10 comes out a bit better. I have no idea why. Anyone care to hazard a post-hoc reason?
1. Rollout 24/22 13/10 Eq.: +0.299
0.577 0.156 0.012 - 0.423 0.099 0.003 CL +0.181 CF +0.299
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
2. Rollout 24/21 13/11 Eq.: +0.274 ( -0.024)
0.574 0.157 0.014 - 0.426 0.101 0.004 CL +0.170 CF +0.274
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
3. Rollout 13/11 13/10 Eq.: +0.255 ( -0.044)
0.563 0.178 0.011 - 0.437 0.100 0.004 CL +0.179 CF +0.255
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
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