Poll
It's between moving both checkers off the ten point and moving one of them and slotting the 4 point with the other.
The two moves are probably pretty close, but I see leaving a blot in our homeboard as an invitation to hit loose. So I'll play 10/7 10/6.
Question: Move?
Option 1: 13/10, 13/9
votes: 0
Option 2: 10/6, 10/7
votes: 2
Option 3: 10/3
votes: 0
Option 4: 10/6, 7/4
votes: 5
Option 5: 7/4, 7/3
votes: 0
Title: Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-4
Post by: diane on August 19, 2010, 08:44:22 AM
Post by: diane on August 19, 2010, 08:44:22 AM
hrcjBwAz2xgDBA:cAmuAAAAEAAA
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-6/game-2-move-6-herd-3-4/?action=dlattach;attach=4935;image)
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-6/game-2-move-6-herd-3-4/?action=dlattach;attach=4935;image)
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-4
Post by: PersianLord on August 19, 2010, 01:00:23 PM
Post by: PersianLord on August 19, 2010, 01:00:23 PM
Spoiler
10/6-7/4
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-4
Post by: ah_clem on August 19, 2010, 01:34:13 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 19, 2010, 01:34:13 PM
Spoiler
It's between moving both checkers off the ten point and moving one of them and slotting the 4 point with the other.
The two moves are probably pretty close, but I see leaving a blot in our homeboard as an invitation to hit loose. So I'll play 10/7 10/6.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-4
Post by: stog on August 19, 2010, 05:43:08 PM
Post by: stog on August 19, 2010, 05:43:08 PM
Spoiler
let him hit loose if he wants! 10/6 7/4
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-4
Post by: ah_clem on August 20, 2010, 01:09:21 PM
Post by: ah_clem on August 20, 2010, 01:09:21 PM
rollout
Slotting the four point is best here. Evaluation has the other move as a .008 error, while 0-ply rollout pegs it as .03.
EVALUATION:
1. Cubeful 2-ply 10/6 7/4 Eq.: +0.007
0.504 0.047 0.001 - 0.496 0.046 0.002
2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/10 13/9 Eq.: -0.001 ( -0.008)
0.498 0.039 0.000 - 0.502 0.035 0.000
3. Cubeful 2-ply 10/7 10/6 Eq.: -0.004 ( -0.011)
0.499 0.042 0.000 - 0.501 0.040 0.001
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
ROLLOUT:
1. Rollout 10/6 7/4 Eq.: +0.028
0.505 0.047 0.001 - 0.495 0.044 0.002 CL +0.017 CF +0.028
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.006]
2. Rollout 10/7 10/6 Eq.: -0.004 ( -0.032)
0.496 0.041 0.001 - 0.504 0.040 0.001 CL -0.006 CF -0.004
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.006]
3. Rollout 13/10 13/9 Eq.: -0.054 ( -0.082)
0.483 0.040 0.000 - 0.517 0.037 0.001 CL -0.027 CF -0.054
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.007]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894086436 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
Slotting the four point is best here. Evaluation has the other move as a .008 error, while 0-ply rollout pegs it as .03.
EVALUATION:
1. Cubeful 2-ply 10/6 7/4 Eq.: +0.007
0.504 0.047 0.001 - 0.496 0.046 0.002
2. Cubeful 2-ply 13/10 13/9 Eq.: -0.001 ( -0.008)
0.498 0.039 0.000 - 0.502 0.035 0.000
3. Cubeful 2-ply 10/7 10/6 Eq.: -0.004 ( -0.011)
0.499 0.042 0.000 - 0.501 0.040 0.001
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
ROLLOUT:
1. Rollout 10/6 7/4 Eq.: +0.028
0.505 0.047 0.001 - 0.495 0.044 0.002 CL +0.017 CF +0.028
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.006]
2. Rollout 10/7 10/6 Eq.: -0.004 ( -0.032)
0.496 0.041 0.001 - 0.504 0.040 0.001 CL -0.006 CF -0.004
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.006]
3. Rollout 13/10 13/9 Eq.: -0.054 ( -0.082)
0.483 0.040 0.000 - 0.517 0.037 0.001 CL -0.027 CF -0.054
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL 0.003 CF 0.007]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894086436 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]