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s3YRAwSGtyMHAA:MAG1AAAAEAAA

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Hit loose is still no option to me, I'm only 5 pips behind: that isn't very good but it's still better to play safe than to take an enormous risk. I have no board at all and you are close to making the 4-point.

So I'm still forced to make not-very-goodlooking choices.

I can't leave a direct shot, that would give you the opportunity to hit and make the 4-point.

Leaving an indirect shot gives me a direct shot when you hit. But again my board is awful.

I like making the 11-point, but I have to play 8/3 or 6/1 then to avoid a direct hit. I don't like 11/6 8/6. Think I like 13/6 best, but I'm in doubt... maybe it's still too risky. Or maybe I just danced too much last days.

Hmm, I think I play it anyway. 13/6

about that loose hit....rollout:

Spoiler

gnubg 0-ply rollout doesn't like the loose hit, but it likes it better than 13/6.  it's choice is to make the eleven point and then play the 5 behind our runner. 



    1. Rollout          13/11 8/3                    Eq.:  -0.237
       0.434 0.026 0.000 - 0.566 0.055 0.001 CL  -0.175 CF  -0.237
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          11/4*                        Eq.:  -0.327 ( -0.091)
       0.426 0.044 0.002 - 0.574 0.190 0.002 CL  -0.338 CF  -0.327
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  -0.344 ( -0.107)
       0.399 0.026 0.001 - 0.601 0.062 0.001 CL  -0.251 CF  -0.344
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.007]

    4. Rollout          13/11 6/1                    Eq.:  -0.365 ( -0.128)
       0.395 0.019 0.001 - 0.605 0.054 0.001 CL  -0.255 CF  -0.365
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.006]

    5. Rollout          11/6 8/6                     Eq.:  -0.366 ( -0.130)
       0.390 0.011 0.000 - 0.610 0.021 0.001 CL  -0.234 CF  -0.366
      [0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894086436 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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