Poll
Question: Push the cube?
Option 1: Yes
votes: 7
Option 2: No
votes: 1
Title: Game 1 Move 10 Herd cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on October 16, 2010, 01:55:45 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 16, 2010, 01:55:45 PM
And we have a cube decision to make. Double or hold?
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 10 Herd cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on October 17, 2010, 02:20:52 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 17, 2010, 02:20:52 AM
A lopsided vote (7-1) so I'm ending it early.
I peeked at the bot results before posting, so no vote or analysis from me this time.
I'd like to encourage participants to say why they're voting the way they are - the discussion is the main reason why these matches are interesting. Of course, it's perfectly acceptable to vote without saying why.
rollouts coming as soon as Z makes his take decision.
I peeked at the bot results before posting, so no vote or analysis from me this time.
I'd like to encourage participants to say why they're voting the way they are - the discussion is the main reason why these matches are interesting. Of course, it's perfectly acceptable to vote without saying why.
rollouts coming as soon as Z makes his take decision.
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 10 Herd cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on October 17, 2010, 11:36:17 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 17, 2010, 11:36:17 PM
rollout
Another play where 2-ply analysis and 0-ply rollout disagree. Both say it's a blunder to hold the cube, analysis says clear take, rollout says clear pass.
These positions are tricky. (c:
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.512 (Money: +0.511)
0.671 0.281 0.017 - 0.329 0.124 0.005
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.899
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.101)
3. No double +0.730 ( -0.169)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.681 0.282 0.016 - 0.319 0.115 0.006 CL +0.555 CF +0.807
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
Player Zorba owns 2-cube:
0.695 0.284 0.017 - 0.305 0.104 0.011 CL +1.320 CF +1.093
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.015 CF 0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
1. Double, take +1.093 (+.093)
2. Double, pass +1.000
3. No double +0.807 (-.193)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Spoiler
Another play where 2-ply analysis and 0-ply rollout disagree. Both say it's a blunder to hold the cube, analysis says clear take, rollout says clear pass.
These positions are tricky. (c:
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.512 (Money: +0.511)
0.671 0.281 0.017 - 0.329 0.124 0.005
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.899
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.101)
3. No double +0.730 ( -0.169)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.681 0.282 0.016 - 0.319 0.115 0.006 CL +0.555 CF +0.807
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.012]
Player Zorba owns 2-cube:
0.695 0.284 0.017 - 0.305 0.104 0.011 CL +1.320 CF +1.093
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.015 CF 0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
1. Double, take +1.093 (+.093)
2. Double, pass +1.000
3. No double +0.807 (-.193)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
[close]