Poll
Our next objective should be to make the bar point or the nine point, so moving 13/5 is anti-positional. With our anchor leaving a blot on the ten is not very risky - it's 7 points away, so it's only 1 in 9 to be hit (52 is blocked) , and if he does hit he's abandoned one of his major assets - his anchor. 13/8 13/10.
Question: 5-3 to play
Option 1: 13/8 13/10
votes: 7
Option 2: 13/5
votes: 3
Option 3: 13/8 5/2
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/5 6/1
votes: 0
Title: Game 1 Move 2 The Herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 04, 2010, 11:56:08 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 04, 2010, 11:56:08 AM
Not many options here.
Position ID: mOfBAQzYZvABDA
Match ID: cImuAAAAAAAA
Position ID: mOfBAQzYZvABDA
Match ID: cImuAAAAAAAA
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 2 The Herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 04, 2010, 12:07:35 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 04, 2010, 12:07:35 PM
Spoiler
Our next objective should be to make the bar point or the nine point, so moving 13/5 is anti-positional. With our anchor leaving a blot on the ten is not very risky - it's 7 points away, so it's only 1 in 9 to be hit (52 is blocked) , and if he does hit he's abandoned one of his major assets - his anchor. 13/8 13/10.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 2 The Herd to play 5-3
Post by: KDP on October 04, 2010, 09:36:45 PM
Post by: KDP on October 04, 2010, 09:36:45 PM
Spoiler
i think you have to bring 2 down. although we get hit with 6 1and 4 3 its our best shot at making our bar point.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1 Move 2 The Herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 08, 2010, 04:11:35 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 08, 2010, 04:11:35 AM
Catching up on a few rollouts that had been deferred due to the possibility of a cube lurking.
rollout
rollout
Spoiler
Nothing surprising here...
1. Rollout 13/10 13/8 Eq.: +0.292
0.567 0.138 0.005 - 0.433 0.091 0.004 CL +0.198 CF +0.292
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.013]
2. Rollout 13/5 Eq.: +0.231 ( -0.061)
0.548 0.132 0.005 - 0.452 0.092 0.004 CL +0.146 CF +0.231
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898618771 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
1. Rollout 13/10 13/8 Eq.: +0.292
0.567 0.138 0.005 - 0.433 0.091 0.004 CL +0.198 CF +0.292
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.013]
2. Rollout 13/5 Eq.: +0.231 ( -0.061)
0.548 0.132 0.005 - 0.452 0.092 0.004 CL +0.146 CF +0.231
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898618771 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]