Poll
Question: The Herd rolls 5-3
Option 1: 15/10 13/10
votes: 8
Option 2: 8/3 6/3
votes: 0
Option 3: 13/8 6/3
votes: 0
Option 4: 13/5
votes: 0
Option 5: 13/10 6/1*
votes: 0
Title: Game 2 Move 1 The herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 01:08:53 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 01:08:53 PM
5-3 to play
Position ID: mGfhASjgc/AJIA
Match ID: cIm1AAAACAAA
Position ID: mGfhASjgc/AJIA
Match ID: cIm1AAAACAAA
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 1 The herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 01:16:17 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 01:16:17 PM
Spoiler
Make as outfield point and safety a blot in the process, or make a homeboard point, leaving the blot? I don't think any of the other plays are close.
Tough call, but I'm going to say that the three point is not particularly valuable (yet) and keeping our advantage of having escaped a runner is worth slightly more. Not sure if this is correct. Make the 10 point.
Tough call, but I'm going to say that the three point is not particularly valuable (yet) and keeping our advantage of having escaped a runner is worth slightly more. Not sure if this is correct. Make the 10 point.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 1 The herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 04:37:27 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 04:37:27 PM
bump
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 1 The herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 06:40:37 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 19, 2010, 06:40:37 PM
This is looking pretty settled, but I'm going to give it a couple more hours.
Anyone else want to weigh in on why they're voting for their move?
Anyone else want to weigh in on why they're voting for their move?
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 1 The herd to play 5-3
Post by: ah_clem on October 20, 2010, 11:09:17 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 20, 2010, 11:09:17 PM
rollout
Spoiler
The rollout is as lopsided as the vote. Making the three is a double whopper.
1. Rollout 15/10 13/10 Eq.: -0.058
0.497 0.113 0.010 - 0.503 0.153 0.005 CL -0.060 CF -0.058
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
2. Rollout 8/3 6/3 Eq.: -0.258 ( -0.200)
0.450 0.127 0.013 - 0.550 0.196 0.010 CL -0.188 CF -0.258
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.016]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
1. Rollout 15/10 13/10 Eq.: -0.058
0.497 0.113 0.010 - 0.503 0.153 0.005 CL -0.060 CF -0.058
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
2. Rollout 8/3 6/3 Eq.: -0.258 ( -0.200)
0.450 0.127 0.013 - 0.550 0.196 0.010 CL -0.188 CF -0.258
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.016]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]