Poll
The runner is way utg, and advancing it to the bar point leaves a triple shot. We're on the ropes here, so the best option seems to be an action play that takes half a roll away from our opponent. Hit loose and pray.
Why 7/3?
Bonus points for explaining how either it or 8/4* comports with the cube that's probably coming our way momentarily.
If the answer is no and no, then it probably doesn't matter which we choose.
Bob
PL
Question: 4-3? The 3 is forced. Where to play the four?
Option 1: 22/18
votes: 1
Option 2: 13/9
votes: 0
Option 3: 10/6
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/4*
votes: 5
Option 5: 7/3
votes: 3
Option 6: 6/2
votes: 0
Title: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 12:09:05 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 12:09:05 AM
The three is forced. Where to play the four?
Position ID: sZ2FASKG14wDQA
Match ID: cAmuAAAACAAA
Position ID: sZ2FASKG14wDQA
Match ID: cAmuAAAACAAA
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 12:24:25 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 12:24:25 AM
Spoiler
The runner is way utg, and advancing it to the bar point leaves a triple shot. We're on the ropes here, so the best option seems to be an action play that takes half a roll away from our opponent. Hit loose and pray.
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Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 02:16:29 AM
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 02:16:29 AM
Spoiler
Why 7/3?
Bonus points for explaining how either it or 8/4* comports with the cube that's probably coming our way momentarily.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: stiefnu on October 23, 2010, 11:46:20 AM
Post by: stiefnu on October 23, 2010, 11:46:20 AM
Spoiler
I've changed my mind. I think we should try running and recycle if we have to, which does seem likely, whatever we do.
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Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: r_monk on October 23, 2010, 01:56:33 PM
Post by: r_monk on October 23, 2010, 01:56:33 PM
Spoiler
Quote from: stiefnu on October 23, 2010, 11:46:20 AMMaybe if we didn't have that blot on the bar-point running would be an option. Now it just leaves too many shots. I think 8/4* or 7/3 are the only options we have. I voted for 8/4*, but I doubt that's the right one. 7/3 is probably better.
I've changed my mind. I think we should try running and recycle if we have to, which does seem likely, whatever we do.
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Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: stog on October 23, 2010, 04:22:01 PM
Post by: stog on October 23, 2010, 04:22:01 PM
Spoiler
i like 8/4* too, then we must decide if we want to accept the cube? ;)
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Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 04:34:31 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 23, 2010, 04:34:31 PM
Spoiler
Quote from: stog on October 23, 2010, 04:22:01 PMDo any of these moves result in a take for us? Do any result in a too-goo-to -double position?
i like 8/4* too, then we must decide if we want to accept the cube? ;)
If the answer is no and no, then it probably doesn't matter which we choose.
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Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: NIHILIST on October 23, 2010, 10:14:15 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on October 23, 2010, 10:14:15 PM
Spoiler
IMHO the idea here is to make a play that'll get us doubled so we can quietly drop. If we give him his whole move he's liable to play for a gammon. He may do so regardless of our move.
I think we hit him with the 4 and hope the idea of a half-move persuades him to turn the cube.
I think we hit him with the 4 and hope the idea of a half-move persuades him to turn the cube.
[close]
Bob
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: PersianLord on October 24, 2010, 12:48:56 PM
Post by: PersianLord on October 24, 2010, 12:48:56 PM
Quote from: NIHILIST on October 23, 2010, 10:14:15 PMSpoiler
IMHO the idea here is to make a play that'll get us doubled so we can quietly drop. If we give him his whole move he's liable to play for a gammon. He may do so regardless of our move.
I think we hit him with the 4 and hope the idea of a half-move persuades him to turn the cube.[close]
Bob
Spoiler
This is a brilliant manifestation of 'strategic vision'. Without getting engulfed in number-crunching fantasies, you offered a simple, yet efficient and ellegant escape route for this miserable herd at this historical moment.
Thou shall be our Shepherd Elect in our plight against this bald wolf. May the Allah bless you, Leviathan!
Thou shall be our Shepherd Elect in our plight against this bald wolf. May the Allah bless you, Leviathan!
[close]
PL
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: NIHILIST on October 24, 2010, 01:54:08 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on October 24, 2010, 01:54:08 PM
I don't know how brilliant it was, since it appears he didn't fall for it.
Bob
Bob
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 01:39:34 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 01:39:34 PM
expurgated bot results
I have gnu 0-ply rollout, but it's too soon to present it in it's entirety.
The Herd chose the best move here. 7/3 is second best and only a .02 error - basically within the margin of error. The other plays are double-whoppers (.2 errors)
Spoiler
I have gnu 0-ply rollout, but it's too soon to present it in it's entirety.
The Herd chose the best move here. 7/3 is second best and only a .02 error - basically within the margin of error. The other plays are double-whoppers (.2 errors)
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Title: Re: Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar
Post by: Zorba on October 30, 2010, 04:36:25 PM
Post by: Zorba on October 30, 2010, 04:36:25 PM
XG rollout:
Both plays lead to a big double but also an easy take. Very similar results for both plays (to my surprise), except that the hit is just a little bit better in every aspect.
XGID=aA--BBC-BA--cB-b-bad-A-bA-:0:0:-1:43:0:1:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/4* eq:-0,789
Player : 38,47% (G:15,10% B:3,04%)
Opponent: 61,53% (G:33,51% B:2,89%)
Confidence: +/- 0,013 (-0,802<E<-0,776)
Duration: 9 hours 52 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 7/3 eq:-0,811 (-0,023)
Player : 38,14% (G:14,28% B:2,82%)
Opponent: 61,86% (G:34,50% B:0,97%)
Confidence: +/- 0,012 (-0,823<E<-0,799)
Duration: 7 hours 48 minutes
¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Search interval: Huge
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Spoiler
Both plays lead to a big double but also an easy take. Very similar results for both plays (to my surprise), except that the hit is just a little bit better in every aspect.
XGID=aA--BBC-BA--cB-b-bad-A-bA-:0:0:-1:43:0:1:0:5:10
1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 8/4* eq:-0,789
Player : 38,47% (G:15,10% B:3,04%)
Opponent: 61,53% (G:33,51% B:2,89%)
Confidence: +/- 0,013 (-0,802<E<-0,776)
Duration: 9 hours 52 minutes
2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 7/3 eq:-0,811 (-0,023)
Player : 38,14% (G:14,28% B:2,82%)
Opponent: 61,86% (G:34,50% B:0,97%)
Confidence: +/- 0,012 (-0,823<E<-0,799)
Duration: 7 hours 48 minutes
¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Search interval: Huge
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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