Dr. Z, would you like to double here?
Position ID: hteMAyDYnoUBUA
Match ID: MAGgAAAACAAA
13 rolls could hit that blot, if I counted correctly. If the Herd enters, it looks like a clear take and maybe not even a double. The Herd dances 25% of the time and it might be a pass after that, although I'd guess not a big pass. So there could be some small marketlosers here, 13/36 * 9/36 = 117/1296 ~= 9% of the time.
If I don't hit, I don't have much of an advantage, if at all. I also dance ~11% of the time myself after which I'll be a clear underdog.
So, no cube here. If things go well I'll have a strong cube next turn.
I think you may have undervalued your position. You say that 13 numbers hit THAT blot, by which I assume you mean the blot on our bar point.
What about 5-4, 5-5 and 4-4 that bear on the OTHER blot ? While they miss the blot on the bar point they seem equally, if not more ( 5-5 ) devastating on the other side of the board. That gets the hitting numbers to 17, near even money for a position where gammon possibilities favor you pretty strongly.
I think if I were in your chair I'd whip it.
Bob
OOPS ! Add 1-5 and 3-5 to the hitting side. That brings the hitting numbers to 21.
Bob
Quote from: NIHILIST on October 22, 2010, 01:04:22 AM
I think if I were in your chair I'd whip it.
A visual cue might be more persuasive.
(http://www.liketotally80s.com/images/whip-it.jpg)
gnubg results
Spoiler
2-ply analysis says no double (.06). 0-ply rollout says marginal double (.005). 2-ply rollout says no double (.02). Massive take regardless.
This is a close one.
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.249 (Money: +0.283)
0.589 0.235 0.011 - 0.411 0.134 0.006
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.420
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.580)
3. Double, take +0.359 ( -0.061)
Proper cube action: No double, take (9.5%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.590 0.240 0.012 - 0.410 0.137 0.015 CL +0.299 CF +0.427
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Player The Herd owns 2-cube:
0.595 0.244 0.013 - 0.405 0.147 0.021 CL +0.694 CF +0.433
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL 0.016 CF 0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904334444 and quasi-random
dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
1. No double +0.427 ( -0.005)
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.567)
3. Double, take +0.433
Proper cube action: double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.593 0.242 0.012 - 0.407 0.135 0.019 CL +0.305 CF +0.452
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.002 0.002 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
Player You owns 2-cube:
0.600 0.249 0.010 - 0.400 0.142 0.027 CL +0.701 CF +0.433
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL 0.013 CF 0.016]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898960946 and quasi-random
dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. No double +0.452
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.548)
3. Double, take +0.433 ( -0.020)
Proper cube action: no double, take
@NIHILIST
I didn't mention the loose hits on the acepoint blot, as they are not nearly as strong as hitting the barpoint blot IMO. Sending a second checker back gains me a lot more than just putting that last runner on the bar, and not just in the race: it will also be much harder to escape my blockade with two men instead of one. Besides, hitting loose on the acepoint means leaving a direct shot there that will be hit ~30% of the time, so it really is a mixed blessing. The blot on the acepoint can also be a liability later on.
5-5 is a great roll though of course. Also, the loose hits have good potential when the Herd dances (25%), because of the other blots. But the bottom line is that with the loose hit, I get return hit more often than I get a dance.
XGID=-a--BBD-BA--cB-b-bad---bAA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:5:10
XG results:
Spoiler
It looks like a pretty clear No Double with XG, I'll do a better rollout later to get a good figure on the margin here.
Analyzed in 3 ply
Player Winning Chances: 58,60% (G: 23,19% B: 1,20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41,40% (G: 12,63% B: 0,65%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,240, Double=+0,559
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0,407
Double/Take: +0,312 (-0,094)
Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,593)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Analyzed in 4 ply
Player Winning Chances: 59,61% (G: 23,52% B: 1,14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40,39% (G: 12,22% B: 0,61%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,268, Double=+0,625
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0,431
Double/Take: +0,387 (-0,044)
Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,569)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 59,19% (G: 22,47% B: 1,05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40,81% (G: 11,85% B: 0,67%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,253, Double=+0,551
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0,422
Double/Take: +0,333 (-0,090)
Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,578)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 59,24% (G: 23,46% B: 1,23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40,76% (G: 12,68% B: 1,26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59,43% (G: 24,00% B: 1,01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40,57% (G: 12,63% B: 1,88%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,247, Double=+0,612
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0,443
Double/Take: +0,386 (-0,057)
Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,557)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,020 (+0,423<E<+0,463)
Confidence Double: ± 0,027 (+0,359<E<+0,414)
Double Decision confidence: 99,9%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 19 minutes 13 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Long XG 3-ply rollout:
Spoiler
Pretty close to a double, but not quite there (0.04 error to cube). Winning chances are not even 60%. The high gammon rate (~40% relative) plus very high volatility still make it almost a double though.
XGID=-a--BBD-BA--cB-b-bad---bAA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:5:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 59,12% (G: 23,95% B: 1,19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40,88% (G: 12,89% B: 1,39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59,70% (G: 24,90% B: 1,05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40,30% (G: 13,65% B: 2,17%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,244, Double=+0,618
Cubeful Equities:
No Double: +0,436
Double/Take: +0,396 (-0,040)
Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,564)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0,008 (+0,428<E<+0,444)
Confidence Double: ± 0,012 (+0,384<E<+0,408)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 13 hours 14 minutes
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross