Poll
Bob
Question: Double or hold?
Option 1: Double
votes: 4
Option 2: Hold
votes: 4
Title: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 01:25:48 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 01:25:48 PM
Zorba danced with a 4-4. Now it's our turn to make a cube decision.
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 02:05:31 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 02:05:31 PM
I've been fiddling with gnubg so I have to recuse myself form the decision.
Position ID: sZ2FAVDWPIwLAA
Match ID: cAmgAAAACAAA
Position ID: sZ2FAVDWPIwLAA
Match ID: cAmgAAAACAAA
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: stiefnu on October 25, 2010, 02:55:00 PM
Post by: stiefnu on October 25, 2010, 02:55:00 PM
Spoiler
With cover shots of 3, 7, 10 & 11 (also with 52) we could have him on the bar, with one back, against a 4-point board. Too good to double/hold?
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 06:52:29 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 25, 2010, 06:52:29 PM
Hmmmm. Four votes for a hold. Just out of curiosity, do you think it's not good enough to double or too good?
Maybe next cube decision I'll make them separate options, although I'd sum the results to arrive at the same result as if the only option is "hold".
Oh, and while I'm here, let me restate my policy that if a cube decision is tied at the end of the voting period we hold the cube - there needs to be a majority to cube.
Maybe next cube decision I'll make them separate options, although I'd sum the results to arrive at the same result as if the only option is "hold".
Oh, and while I'm here, let me restate my policy that if a cube decision is tied at the end of the voting period we hold the cube - there needs to be a majority to cube.
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: NIHILIST on October 25, 2010, 11:10:21 PM
Post by: NIHILIST on October 25, 2010, 11:10:21 PM
Spoiler
I don't think it's too good. I'd be glad if he dropped and thrilled if he took.
HINT: Positions with an open 5 point generally aren't too good. Our best roll is 5-5 and I'm not 100% sure how I'd play it.
HINT: Positions with an open 5 point generally aren't too good. Our best roll is 5-5 and I'm not 100% sure how I'd play it.
[close]
Bob
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: ah_clem on October 26, 2010, 01:35:43 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 26, 2010, 01:35:43 PM
With the vote tied 4-4 at the end of the 24 hours, we roll. No cube.
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: ah_clem on October 29, 2010, 11:28:01 PM
Post by: ah_clem on October 29, 2010, 11:28:01 PM
rollout
Note: this is the famous lost rollout that was orginally attributed to the other move 7 cube decision. Is everyone clear now?
This is marginally too good. Cubing here would not be a very big error. Kudos to the Herd for correctly analyzing a close decision.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
2-ply analysis:
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.900 (Money: +0.803)
0.741 0.379 0.013 - 0.259 0.069 0.002
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.045
2. Double, take +1.913 ( +0.868)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.045)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (4.9%)
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
0-ply rollut
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.740 0.382 0.020 - 0.260 0.068 0.004 CL +0.896 CF +1.040
[0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
Player Zorba owns 2-cube:
0.746 0.380 0.040 - 0.254 0.064 0.005 CL +2.259 CF +2.015
[0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.014 CF 0.017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random
dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
1. No double +1.040
2. Double, take +2.015 ( +0.975)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.040)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass
Note: this is the famous lost rollout that was orginally attributed to the other move 7 cube decision. Is everyone clear now?
Spoiler
This is marginally too good. Cubing here would not be a very big error. Kudos to the Herd for correctly analyzing a close decision.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
2-ply analysis:
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.900 (Money: +0.803)
0.741 0.379 0.013 - 0.259 0.069 0.002
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +1.045
2. Double, take +1.913 ( +0.868)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.045)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass (4.9%)
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
0-ply rollut
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.740 0.382 0.020 - 0.260 0.068 0.004 CL +0.896 CF +1.040
[0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
Player Zorba owns 2-cube:
0.746 0.380 0.040 - 0.254 0.064 0.005 CL +2.259 CF +2.015
[0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL 0.014 CF 0.017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random
dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
1. No double +1.040
2. Double, take +2.015 ( +0.975)
3. Double, pass +1.000 ( -0.040)
Proper cube action: Too good to double, pass
[close]
Title: Re: Game 2 Move 7 the Herd cube decision?
Post by: diane on October 30, 2010, 01:22:22 AM
Post by: diane on October 30, 2010, 01:22:22 AM
Not entirely...but that may be more due to cocktails last night than your inability to distinguish one move seven from another...
Just blame me...
Just blame me...