FIBS Board backgammon forum
Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 7 => Topic started by: ah_clem on October 28, 2010, 01:15:30 PM
62 for Dr Z
I can't hit, so I would like to safety the blot on my 11pt. I could make my fivepoint, which is great for a later hit. However, I would also like to develop my backmen to avoid getting stuck on the acepoint; after all the race is still close. Splitting the backmen while the Herd wants to safety their runner looks like a good idea: less risk of getting pounded on and the split backmen also guard the Herd's outfield better, in case that runner can't get to complete safety.
The 24/22 split looks like a better bet than the 24/18 split as it gives the Herd less opportunities for a good hit. Also, 24/22 means I can play 11/5 and at least slot the fivepoint. So, 24/22 11/5 for me.
rollout
Spoiler
I was surprised that Z didn't make the 5 point, so I rolled it out. His choice is reasonable, but making the 5 point is best.
1. Rollout 11/5 7/5 Eq.: -0.486
0.372 0.066 0.002 - 0.628 0.105 0.008 CL -0.294 CF -0.486
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.010]
2. Rollout 24/18 11/9 Eq.: -0.493 ( -0.006)
0.375 0.068 0.005 - 0.625 0.145 0.010 CL -0.324 CF -0.493
[0.001 0.001 0.002 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
3. Rollout 24/22 11/5 Eq.: -0.517 ( -0.031)
0.371 0.066 0.002 - 0.629 0.122 0.008 CL -0.313 CF -0.517
[0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.011]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
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