Game 2 Move 4 The Herd to play 4-3 from the bar

[ah_clem]

The three is forced.  Where to play the four?

Position ID: sZ2FASKG14wDQA
Match ID: cAmuAAAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The runner is way utg, and advancing it to the bar point leaves a triple shot.  We're on the ropes here, so the best option seems to be an action play that takes half a roll away from our opponent.  Hit loose and pray.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Why 7/3?

Bonus points for explaining how either it or 8/4* comports with the  cube that's probably coming our way momentarily.

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

I've changed my mind. I think we should try running and recycle if we have to, which does seem likely, whatever we do.

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[r_monk]

Spoiler

I've changed my mind. I think we should try running and recycle if we have to, which does seem likely, whatever we do.

Maybe if we didn't have that blot on the bar-point running would be an option. Now it just leaves too many shots. I think 8/4* or 7/3 are the only options we have. I voted for 8/4*, but I doubt that's the right one. 7/3 is probably better.

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[stog]

Spoiler

i like 8/4* too, then we must decide if we want to accept the cube? 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

i like 8/4* too, then we must decide if we want to accept the cube? 

Do any of these moves result in a take for us?  Do any result in a too-goo-to -double position?

If the answer is no and no, then it probably doesn't matter which we choose.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

IMHO the idea here is to make a play that'll get us doubled so we can quietly drop. If we give him his whole move he's liable to play for a gammon. He may do so regardless of our move.

I think we hit him with the 4 and hope the idea of a half-move persuades him to turn the cube.

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Bob

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

IMHO the idea here is to make a play that'll get us doubled so we can quietly drop. If we give him his whole move he's liable to play for a gammon. He may do so regardless of our move.

I think we hit him with the 4 and hope the idea of a half-move persuades him to turn the cube.

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Bob

Spoiler

This is a brilliant manifestation of 'strategic vision'. Without getting engulfed in number-crunching fantasies, you offered a simple, yet efficient and ellegant escape route for this miserable herd at this historical moment.

Thou shall be our Shepherd Elect in our plight against this bald wolf. May the Allah bless you, Leviathan!

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PL

[NIHILIST]

I don't know how brilliant it was, since it appears he didn't fall for it.

Bob

[ah_clem]

expurgated bot results

Spoiler

I have gnu 0-ply rollout, but it's too soon to present it in it's entirety. 

The Herd chose the best move here.  7/3 is second best and only a .02 error - basically within the margin of error.  The other plays are double-whoppers (.2 errors)

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[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

Both plays lead to a big double but also an easy take. Very similar results for both plays (to my surprise), except that the hit is just a little bit better in every aspect.

XGID=aA--BBC-BA--cB-b-bad-A-bA-:0:0:-1:43:0:1:0:5:10

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/22 8/4*                  eq:-0,789
      Player  : 38,47% (G:15,10% B:3,04%)
      Opponent: 61,53% (G:33,51% B:2,89%)
      Confidence: +/- 0,013 (-0,802<E<-0,776)
      Duration: 9 hours 52 minutes

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/22 7/3                   eq:-0,811 (-0,023)
      Player  : 38,14% (G:14,28% B:2,82%)
      Opponent: 61,86% (G:34,50% B:0,97%)
      Confidence: +/- 0,012 (-0,823<E<-0,799)
      Duration: 7 hours 48 minutes


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
  Search interval: Huge


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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