Poll
It's hard to argue against covering the blot. Then it seems like playing the one as 8/7 is obvious. Slotting the five seems unnecessarily risky.
I don't want him to anchor, but hitting loose and leaving a second blot seems over enthusiastic.
8/7 6/1
Question: 5-1?
Option 1: 13/7
votes: 0
Option 2: 13/8 6/5
votes: 0
Option 3: 8/2*
votes: 0
Option 4: 8/7 6/1
votes: 5
Option 5: 6/1 6/5
votes: 0
Title: Game 3 move 8 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 02, 2010, 10:22:55 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 02, 2010, 10:22:55 PM
Zorba rolled a 4-2 and entered one checker. Our next roll is 5-1.
Title: Re: Game 3 move 8 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 02, 2010, 10:26:04 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 02, 2010, 10:26:04 PM
Spoiler
It's hard to argue against covering the blot. Then it seems like playing the one as 8/7 is obvious. Slotting the five seems unnecessarily risky.
I don't want him to anchor, but hitting loose and leaving a second blot seems over enthusiastic.
8/7 6/1
[close]
Title: Re: Game 3 move 8 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 03, 2010, 01:26:49 AM
Post by: ah_clem on November 03, 2010, 01:26:49 AM
Ok, the vote's 5-0, and seems like a next, so I'm going to call it early.
Title: Re: Game 3 move 8 The Herd to play 5-1
Post by: ah_clem on November 03, 2010, 12:33:53 PM
Post by: ah_clem on November 03, 2010, 12:33:53 PM
gnubg results
I didn't bother to roll this one out. 2-ply analysis has our play best with everything else being a double whopper.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/7 6/1 Eq.: +0.520
0.745 0.320 0.011 - 0.255 0.048 0.001
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2* Eq.: +0.261 ( -0.259)
0.673 0.362 0.023 - 0.327 0.109 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Cubeful 2-ply 6/5 6/1 Eq.: +0.233 ( -0.287)
0.667 0.329 0.015 - 0.333 0.107 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 3/2* Eq.: +0.173 ( -0.348)
0.653 0.349 0.015 - 0.347 0.121 0.006
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Spoiler
I didn't bother to roll this one out. 2-ply analysis has our play best with everything else being a double whopper.
1. Cubeful 2-ply 8/7 6/1 Eq.: +0.520
0.745 0.320 0.011 - 0.255 0.048 0.001
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2. Cubeful 2-ply 8/2* Eq.: +0.261 ( -0.259)
0.673 0.362 0.023 - 0.327 0.109 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3. Cubeful 2-ply 6/5 6/1 Eq.: +0.233 ( -0.287)
0.667 0.329 0.015 - 0.333 0.107 0.004
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
4. Cubeful 0-ply 6/1 3/2* Eq.: +0.173 ( -0.348)
0.653 0.349 0.015 - 0.347 0.121 0.006
0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
[close]